HonestElo
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Aljamain Sterling

Active #1 catchweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1715 ±42
LCB 1660
Rank
#1
top 1% of division
UFC record
16-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 4 · Dec 10
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +14
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

21 fights · tap & drag
Feb 22, 2014 — W vs Cody Gibson Δ+29Jul 16, 2014 — W vs Hugo Viana Δ+35Apr 18, 2015 — W vs Takeya Mizugaki Δ+34Dec 10, 2015 — W vs Johnny Eduardo Δ+27May 29, 2016 — L vs Bryan Caraway Δ-31Jan 28, 2017 — L vs Raphael Assuncao Δ-15Apr 15, 2017 — W vs Augusto Mendes Δ+13Jul 29, 2017 — W vs Renan Barao Δ+18Dec 9, 2017 — L vs Marlon Moraes Δ-23Apr 21, 2018 — W vs Brett Johns Δ+16Sep 8, 2018 — W vs Cody Stamann Δ+18Feb 17, 2019 — W vs Jimmie Rivera Δ+17Jun 8, 2019 — W vs Pedro Munhoz Δ+16Jun 6, 2020 — W vs Cory Sandhagen Δ+19Apr 9, 2022 — W vs Petr Yan Δ+22Oct 22, 2022 — W vs TJ Dillashaw Δ+23May 6, 2023 — W vs Henry Cejudo Δ+19Aug 19, 2023 — L vs Sean O'Malley Δ-29Apr 13, 2024 — W vs Calvin Kattar Δ+11Dec 7, 2024 — L vs Movsar Evloev Δ-17Aug 23, 2025 — W vs Brian Ortega Δ+14 14891561163317041776 20162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":206.5,"elo":1529,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Cody Gibson","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":53.2,"y":180.5,"elo":1564,"date":"2014-07-16","opp":"Hugo Viana","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":2,"x":109.2,"y":155.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"Takeya Mizugaki","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":157.1,"y":135.7,"elo":1625,"date":"2015-12-10","opp":"Johnny Eduardo","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":4,"x":191.8,"y":158.5,"elo":1594,"date":"2016-05-29","opp":"Bryan Caraway","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":5,"x":241.3,"y":169.5,"elo":1579,"date":"2017-01-28","opp":"Raphael Assuncao","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":256.9,"y":160.1,"elo":1592,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Augusto Mendes","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":278.2,"y":146.7,"elo":1610,"date":"2017-07-29","opp":"Renan Barao","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":305.2,"y":163.8,"elo":1587,"date":"2017-12-09","opp":"Marlon Moraes","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":9,"x":332.1,"y":152,"elo":1603,"date":"2018-04-21","opp":"Brett Johns","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":360.5,"y":138.9,"elo":1621,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Cody Stamann","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":393.4,"y":126.5,"elo":1637,"date":"2019-02-17","opp":"Jimmie Rivera","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":12,"x":415.9,"y":115,"elo":1653,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Pedro Munhoz","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":489.8,"y":101.1,"elo":1672,"date":"2020-06-06","opp":"Cory Sandhagen","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":14,"x":626.1,"y":84.9,"elo":1694,"date":"2022-04-09","opp":"Petr Yan","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":15,"x":665.8,"y":67.7,"elo":1717,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"TJ Dillashaw","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":16,"x":705.6,"y":53.5,"elo":1736,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Henry Cejudo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":17,"x":726.9,"y":75,"elo":1707,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Sean O'Malley","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":18,"x":775.2,"y":66.6,"elo":1718,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Calvin Kattar","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":19,"x":823.5,"y":79.5,"elo":1701,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Movsar Evloev","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":20,"x":876,"y":69.4,"elo":1715,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Brian Ortega","result":"W","delta":14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Brian Ortega W +14
Dec 7, 2024 Movsar Evloev L -17
Apr 13, 2024 Calvin Kattar W +11
Aug 19, 2023 Sean O'Malley L -29
May 6, 2023 Henry Cejudo W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.14
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
54%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.93
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.41
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
52%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.64
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
38%
6 / 16
Finish rate
KO
2
13% of wins
SUB
4
25% of wins
DEC
10
63% of wins
KO: 2 (13%) 2 Sub: 4 (25%) 4 Dec: 10 (63%) 10
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
1 17%
R2
3 50%
R3
2 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1657
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
11.1
actual +5 vs expected