HonestElo
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Jai Herbert

Active #83 lightweight · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1485 ±32
LCB 1444
Rank
#83
top 82% of division
UFC record
3-5-1
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Mar 22, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jul 25, 2020 — L vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ-20Jun 26, 2021 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-25Oct 23, 2021 — W vs Khama Worthy Δ+37Mar 19, 2022 — L vs Ilia Topuria Δ-23Jul 23, 2022 — W vs Kyle Nelson Δ+28Mar 18, 2023 — D vs Ludovit Klein Δ+2Jul 22, 2023 — L vs Fares Ziam Δ-15Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Rolando Bedoya Δ+15Mar 22, 2025 — L vs Chris Padilla Δ-13 14151446147715081539 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":125.1,"elo":1480,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":1,"x":192.3,"y":167.3,"elo":1455,"date":"2021-06-26","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":2,"x":251.9,"y":104,"elo":1492,"date":"2021-10-23","opp":"Khama Worthy","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":3,"x":325.5,"y":143,"elo":1469,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":4,"x":388.6,"y":95.4,"elo":1497,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":507.9,"y":92.8,"elo":1498,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Ludovit Klein","result":"D","delta":2},{"i":6,"x":571,"y":117.9,"elo":1484,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Fares Ziam","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":760.3,"y":92.7,"elo":1499,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Rolando Bedoya","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":115.7,"elo":1485,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Chris Padilla","result":"L","delta":-13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 22, 2025 Chris Padilla L -13
Aug 3, 2024 Rolando Bedoya W +15
Jul 22, 2023 Fares Ziam L -15
Mar 18, 2023 Ludovit Klein D +2
Jul 23, 2022 Kyle Nelson W +28

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.80 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.97 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.39 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
21% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
1 / 3
Finish rate
KO
1
33% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
67% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (67%) 2
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1505
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.9
actual -1 vs expected