← Back to event card

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Vera

Has never been finished — all 11 losses went to the scorecards.

Vera

Finishes 73% of wins (7 KO · 4 SUB).

Vera

8 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Jourdain

5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Tale of the tape

15-11-0 UFC record 9-7-1
KO 7 · Sub 4 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 4
-4 Streak +3
33 Age 30
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Switch Stance Switch
1592 Global Elo 1568
1542 Elo rating 1519
Marlon Vera — Notable
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 73% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Charles Jourdain — Notable
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission

Marlon Vera — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1480 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
  • Head 54%
  • Body 22%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 10%

Charles Jourdain — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1049 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
  • Head 54%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 8%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.18
5.36
div avg 4.32
48%
49%
div avg 50%
5.34
4.11
div avg 3.34
50%
57%
div avg 58%
0.47
0.38
div avg 1.78
39%
22%
div avg 37%
72%
47%
div avg 70%
0.76
0.61
div avg 0.40
1
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Marlon Vera
73% finish rate
KO 7 · Sub 4
can finish?
Charles Jourdain
finished 29%
2 of 7 losses
Charles Jourdain
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 4
can finish?
Marlon Vera
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Marlon Vera has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1625 vs 1559, 5 quality wins to 0.

Marlon Vera red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1625
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
5
of 15 UFC wins
Toughest win
Dominick Cruz
Elo 1668 at fight time
Expected wins
13.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 26 fights
1500
1565
Charles Jourdain blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1559
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Victor Henry
Elo 1583 at fight time
Expected wins
8.0
+1.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 17 fights
1522
1581

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Submission · R1
    Jun 19, 2021
    Oct 18, 2025
  • W
    W
    KO/TKO · R3
    Decision - Unanimous
    Oct 12, 2019
    Dec 18, 2021
Corner A recent form
Marlon Vera
Corner B recent form
Charles Jourdain
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Marlon Vera & Charles Jourdain on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.