King Green vs Terrance McKinney — Honest Elo Matchup & Stats Comparison

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

CORNER A

King Green

17-13-1 UFC record
KO 5 · Sub 3 Finishes
-1 Streak
40 Age
5'10"178 cm Height
71"180 cm Reach
Orthodox Stance
1600 Global Elo
1555 Elo Rating

Notable

#5 in lightweight for Striking Defense
UFC veteran since 2013

CORNER B

Terrance McKinney

8-6-0 UFC record
KO 5 · Sub 3 Finishes
-1 Streak
32 Age
5'11"180 cm Height
74"188 cm Reach
Switch Stance
1536 Global Elo
1491 Elo Rating

Notable

Top lightweight for Strikes Landed per Minute
#2 in lightweight for Submission Attempts per 15 Min
100% of wins by KO or submission

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Other fights on this card · 11

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Main event · welterweight Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett lightweight Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista bantamweight Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh flyweight Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker light heavyweight Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez bantamweight Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong women's flyweight Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida middleweight Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese middleweight Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden flyweight

Notable

division-context facts

McKinney

Finishes 100% of wins (5 KO · 3 SUB; 100% of wins end in round 1).

Green

9 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Oct 2026 / Jul 2026).

Tale of the tape

17-13-1	UFC record	8-6-0
KO 5 · Sub 3	Finishes	KO 5 · Sub 3
-1	Streak	-1
40	Age	32
5'10" 178 cm	Height	5'11" 180 cm
71" 180 cm	Reach	74" 188 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Switch
1600	Global Elo	1536
1555	Elo rating	1491

King Green — Notable ▼

At a glance

Terrance McKinney — Notable ▼

At a glance

King Green — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 2151 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg

58% Head

Head 58%
Body 25%
Leg 17%

Positions distance · clinch · ground

81% Distance

Distance 81%
Clinch 8%
Ground 10%

Terrance McKinney — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 274 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg

87% Head

Head 87%
Body 13%
Leg 0%

Positions distance · clinch · ground

47% Distance

Distance 47%
Clinch 12%
Ground 42%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.59

7.95

div avg 4.56

54%

56%

div avg 51%

3.76

4.76

div avg 3.65

61%

42%

div avg 53%

1.24

3.05

div avg 1.98

45%

47%

div avg 38%

69%

73%

div avg 72%

0.28

2.18

div avg 0.69

div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

King Green

47% finish rate

KO 5 · Sub 3

can finish?

Terrance McKinney

finished 100%

6 of 6 losses

Terrance McKinney

100% finish rate

KO 5 · Sub 3

can finish?

King Green

finished 54%

7 of 13 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1525 (King Green) vs 1544 (Terrance McKinney).

King Green red corner

Avg opp Elo (last 5)

1525

UFC level

Quality wins (1600+)

of 17 UFC wins

Toughest win

Grant Dawson

Elo 1689 at fight time

Expected wins

15.7

+1.3 above schedule

Opponent Elo over career · 32 fights

1568

1563

Notable wins

Grant Dawson 1689 Tony Ferguson 1637 Jim Miller 1626

Terrance McKinney blue corner

Avg opp Elo (last 5)

1544

UFC level

Quality wins (1600+)

of 8 UFC wins

Toughest win

Fares Ziam

Elo 1532 at fight time

Expected wins

7.3

+0.7 above schedule

Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights

1511

1606

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

L

Esteban Ribovics

L

KO/TKO · R1

KO/TKO · R1

Oct 3, 2026

May 11, 2024

L · KO/TKO · R1

Oct 3, 2026

Esteban Ribovics

L · KO/TKO · R1

May 11, 2024
L

Drew Dober

L

KO/TKO · R2

KO/TKO · R1

Dec 17, 2022

Mar 12, 2022

L · KO/TKO · R2

Dec 17, 2022

Drew Dober

L · KO/TKO · R1

Mar 12, 2022

Corner A recent form

King Green

L Esteban Ribovics KO/TKO · R1

Oct 3, 2026
W Terrance McKinney KO/TKO · R1

Jul 11, 2026
W Jeremy Stephens Submission · R1

May 9, 2026
W Daniel Zellhuber KO/TKO · R2

Feb 28, 2026
W Lance Gibson Jr. Decision - Split

Dec 13, 2025
L Mauricio Ruffy KO/TKO · R1

Mar 8, 2025
L Paddy Pimblett Submission · R1

Jul 27, 2024
W Jim Miller Decision - Unanimous

Apr 13, 2024
L Jalin Turner KO/TKO · R1

Dec 2, 2023
W Grant Dawson KO/TKO · R1

Oct 7, 2023
W Tony Ferguson Submission · R3

Jul 29, 2023
NC Jared Gordon Could Not Continue

Apr 22, 2023
L Drew Dober KO/TKO · R2

Dec 17, 2022
L Islam Makhachev KO/TKO · R1

Feb 26, 2022
W Nasrat Haqparast Decision - Unanimous

Feb 12, 2022
W Al Iaquinta KO/TKO · R1

Nov 6, 2021
L Rafael Fiziev Decision - Unanimous

Aug 7, 2021
L Thiago Moises Decision - Unanimous

Oct 31, 2020
W Alan Patrick Decision - Unanimous

Sep 12, 2020
W Lando Vannata Decision - Unanimous

Aug 1, 2020
W Clay Guida Decision - Unanimous

Jun 20, 2020
L Francisco Trinaldo Decision - Unanimous

Nov 16, 2019
L Drakkar Klose Decision - Unanimous

Dec 15, 2018
W Erik Koch Decision - Unanimous

Jan 27, 2018
D Lando Vannata Decision - Split

Oct 7, 2017
L Rashid Magomedov Decision - Split

Apr 15, 2017
L Dustin Poirier KO/TKO · R1

Jun 4, 2016
L Edson Barboza Decision - Unanimous

Nov 22, 2014
W Josh Thomson Decision - Split

Jul 26, 2014
W Pat Healy Decision - Unanimous

Dec 14, 2013
W James Krause KO/TKO · R1

Nov 6, 2013
W Jacob Volkmann Submission · R3

Feb 2, 2013

Corner B recent form

Terrance McKinney

L King Green KO/TKO · R1

Jul 11, 2026
W Kyle Nelson KO/TKO · R1

Mar 28, 2026
L Chris Duncan Submission · R1

Dec 6, 2025
W Viacheslav Borshchev Submission · R1

Jun 28, 2025
W Damir Hadzovic KO/TKO · R1

Feb 1, 2025
L Esteban Ribovics KO/TKO · R1

May 11, 2024
W Brendon Marotte KO/TKO · R1

Oct 14, 2023
W Mike Breeden KO/TKO · R1

Aug 12, 2023
L Nazim Sadykhov Submission · R2

Jul 15, 2023
L Ismael Bonfim KO/TKO · R2

Jan 21, 2023
W Erick Gonzalez Submission · R1

Aug 6, 2022
L Drew Dober KO/TKO · R1

Mar 12, 2022
W Fares Ziam Submission · R1

Feb 26, 2022
W Matt Frevola KO/TKO · R1

Jun 12, 2021

Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from King Green & Terrance McKinney on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.