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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

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By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

17-7-0 UFC record 12-9-0
KO 6 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 5 · Sub 5
-2 Streak +1
35 Age 34
6'0" 183 cm Height 6'3" 191 cm
73" 185 cm Reach 77" 196 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1668 Global Elo 1583
1620 Elo rating 1532
Robert Whittaker — Notable
At a glance
  • 1 successful title defense
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2012
Nikita Krylov — Notable
At a glance

Robert Whittaker — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1435 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 7%

Nikita Krylov — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 638 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
57% Distance
  • Distance 57%
  • Clinch 24%
  • Ground 20%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.39
4.36
div avg 4.47
43%
54%
div avg 51%
3.36
2.59
div avg 3.48
60%
48%
div avg 54%
0.73
2.05
div avg 1.73
38%
37%
div avg 44%
82%
53%
div avg 69%
0.00
1.23
div avg 0.52
1
5
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Robert Whittaker
35% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 0
can finish?
Nikita Krylov
finished 78%
7 of 9 losses
Nikita Krylov
83% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 5
can finish?
Robert Whittaker
finished 57%
4 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Robert Whittaker has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1638 vs 1584, 9 quality wins to 1.

Robert Whittaker red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1638
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
9
of 17 UFC wins
Toughest win
Yoel Romero
Elo 1717 at fight time
Expected wins
12.4
+4.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 24 fights
1500
1614
Nikita Krylov blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1584
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ryan Spann
Elo 1615 at fight time
Expected wins
10.1
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 21 fights
1470
1552
Notable wins
Corner A recent form
Robert Whittaker
Corner B recent form
Nikita Krylov
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Robert Whittaker & Nikita Krylov on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.