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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

1-0-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak -1
31 Age 32
6'1" 185 cm Height 6'4" 193 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 77" 196 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1536 Global Elo 1521
1510 Elo rating 1473
Ryan Gandra — Notable
At a glance
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
Zach Reese — Notable
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission

Ryan Gandra — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 14 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
100% Head
  • Head 100%
  • Body 0%
  • Leg 0%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
93% Distance
  • Distance 93%
  • Clinch 0%
  • Ground 7%

Zach Reese — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 254 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
51% Head
  • Head 51%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 13%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

20.49
4.47
div avg 4.47
48%
55%
div avg 51%
0.00
3.82
div avg 3.48
100%
43%
div avg 54%
0.00
2.90
div avg 1.73
61%
div avg 44%
55%
div avg 69%
0.00
1.06
div avg 0.52
0
3
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ryan Gandra
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Zach Reese
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Zach Reese
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Ryan Gandra
finished
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Zach Reese has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1503 vs 1407, 0 quality wins to 0.

Ryan Gandra red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1407
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jose Daniel Medina
Elo 1407 at fight time
Expected wins
0.6
+0.4 above schedule
Zach Reese blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1503
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Julian Marquez
Elo 1502 at fight time
Expected wins
3.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1457
1598

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Ryan Gandra
Corner B recent form
Zach Reese
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ryan Gandra & Zach Reese on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.