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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

1-0-0 UFC record 3-2-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+1 Streak -1
24 Age 38
6'1" 185 cm Height 6'1" 185 cm
79" 201 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1539 Global Elo 1531
1513 Elo rating 1478
Damian Pinas — Notable
At a glance
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Cesar Almeida — Notable
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 67% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1

Damian Pinas — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 15 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
53% Distance
  • Distance 53%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 40%

Cesar Almeida — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 176 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
43% Head
  • Head 43%
  • Body 35%
  • Leg 22%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 17%
  • Ground 11%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.00
3.12
div avg 4.47
65%
58%
div avg 51%
1.20
2.07
div avg 3.48
77%
46%
div avg 54%
0.00
0.00
div avg 1.73
0%
div avg 44%
100%
47%
div avg 69%
0.00
0.27
div avg 0.52
5
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Damian Pinas
100% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Cesar Almeida
finished 0%
never finished
Cesar Almeida
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Damian Pinas
finished
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1500 (Damian Pinas) vs 1512 (Cesar Almeida).

Damian Pinas red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Wes Schultz
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
0.5
+0.5 above schedule
Cesar Almeida blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Elo 1534 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1500
Corner A recent form
Damian Pinas
Corner B recent form
Cesar Almeida
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Damian Pinas & Cesar Almeida on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.