Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 13
- 1welterweight MainConor McGregorvsMax Holloway
- 2lightweightBenoit Saint DenisvsPaddy Pimblett
- 4flyweightBrandon RoyvalvsLone'er Kavanagh
- 5lightweightKing GreenvsTerrance McKinney
- 6light heavyweightNikita KrylovvsRobert Whittaker
- 7Not linkedheavyweightGable StevesonvsElisha Ellison
- 8bantamweightCody GarbrandtvsAdrian Yanez
- 9featherweightLuke RileyvsKai Kamaka III
- 10women's flyweightTracy CortezvsWang Cong
- 11middleweightDamian PinasvsCesar Almeida
- 12Not linkedbantamweightFarid BasharatvsJohn Garza
- 13middleweightRyan GandravsZach Reese
- 14flyweightAlessandro CostavsCody Durden
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Cory Sandhagen 53.2% · Mario Bautista 46.8%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Cory Sandhagen 54.3% · Mario Bautista 45.7%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 11
Notable
5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Tale of the tape
| 11-6-0 | UFC record | 12-3-0 |
| KO 6 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 1 · Sub 4 |
| -2 | Streak | +2 |
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 5'11" 180 cm | Height | 5'9" 175 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
| 1656 | Global Elo | 1661 |
| 1604 | Elo rating | 1631 |
Cory Sandhagen — Notable ▼
- 64% of wins by KO or submission
- UFC veteran since 2018
Mario Bautista — Notable ▼
Cory Sandhagen — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1233 landed total · career
- Head 66%
- Body 15%
- Leg 19%
- Distance 83%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 13%
Mario Bautista — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 864 landed total · career
- Head 61%
- Body 26%
- Leg 13%
- Distance 80%
- Clinch 13%
- Ground 7%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Victor Henry7.17
- 2Payton Talbott6.07
- 3Sean O'Malley5.97
- 4Adrian Yanez5.92
- 5Davey Grant5.58
- 1Changho Lee65%
- 2Sean O'Malley60%
- 3Nathan Fletcher60%
- 4Bryce Mitchell59%
- 5Payton Talbott59%
- 1Montel Jackson1.39
- 2Bryce Mitchell1.51
- 3Jafel Filho1.52
- 4Suyoung You1.68
- 5Elijah Smith1.70
- 1David Martinez72%
- 2Suyoung You70%
- 3Aiemann Zahabi68%
- 4Santiago Luna68%
- 5Javid Basharat64%
- 1Merab Dvalishvili5.97
- 2Raul Rosas Jr.5.34
- 3Rafael Estevam5.02
- 4Brady Hiestand4.13
- 5Cristian Quinonez4.12
- 1Elijah Smith75%
- 2Santiago Luna71%
- 3Benardo Sopaj60%
- 4Montel Jackson60%
- 5Rinya Nakamura57%
- 1David Martinez100%
- 2Rinya Nakamura100%
- 3Quang Le100%
- 4Xiao Long88%
- 5Caolan Loughran88%
- 1Toshiomi Kazama1.89
- 2Jafel Filho1.84
- 3Saimon Oliveira1.67
- 4Colby Thicknesse1.67
- 5Da'Mon Blackshear1.48
- 1Bryce Mitchell8.25
- 2Rafael Estevam7.79
- 3Rinya Nakamura6.94
- 4Raul Rosas Jr.6.68
- 5Brady Hiestand6.54
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Cory Sandhagen has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1666 vs 1627, 8 quality wins to 4.
Common opponents
1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Jul 11, 2026
- Oct 4, 2025
- May 3, 2025
- Aug 3, 2024
- Aug 5, 2023
- Jul 11, 2026
- Feb 7, 2026
- Oct 25, 2025
- Jun 7, 2025
- Oct 5, 2024