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Mario Bautista won · by Decision · R3
Final result · recorded Jul 12, 2026
Mario Bautista
defeated Cory Sandhagen by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Cory Sandhagen 53.2% · Mario Bautista 46.8%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Cory Sandhagen 54.3% · Mario Bautista 45.7%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Notable

Sandhagen

5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Tale of the tape

11-6-0 UFC record 12-3-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 4
-2 Streak +2
34 Age 33
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Switch Stance Switch
1656 Global Elo 1661
1604 Elo rating 1631
Cory Sandhagen — Notable
At a glance
  • 64% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2018
Mario Bautista — Notable

Cory Sandhagen — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1233 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 13%

Mario Bautista — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 864 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 7%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.92
5.52
div avg 4.32
45%
50%
div avg 50%
3.72
4.17
div avg 3.34
55%
54%
div avg 58%
1.14
2.49
div avg 1.78
34%
39%
div avg 37%
57%
57%
div avg 70%
0.24
1.05
div avg 0.40
3
3
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Cory Sandhagen
64% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 1
can finish?
Mario Bautista
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Mario Bautista
42% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 4
can finish?
Cory Sandhagen
finished 17%
1 of 6 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Cory Sandhagen has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1666 vs 1627, 8 quality wins to 4.

Cory Sandhagen red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1666
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
8
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Deiveson Figueiredo
Elo 1676 at fight time
Expected wins
8.5
+2.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 17 fights
1500
1644
Mario Bautista blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1627
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jose Aldo
Elo 1682 at fight time
Expected wins
7.6
+4.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1569
1673

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Aug 3, 2024
    Oct 25, 2025
Corner A recent form
Cory Sandhagen
Corner B recent form
Mario Bautista
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Cory Sandhagen & Mario Bautista on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.