HonestElo
← lightweight

Matt Frevola

Active #78 lightweight · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1504 ±40
LCB 1451
Rank
#78
top 77% of division
UFC record
5-6-1
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Oct 18, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Jan 14, 2018 — L vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ-28Nov 3, 2018 — D vs Lando Vannata Δ+0Apr 13, 2019 — W vs Jalin Turner Δ+32Oct 12, 2019 — W vs Luis Pena Δ+34Jan 23, 2021 — L vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ-28Jun 12, 2021 — L vs Terrance McKinney Δ-19Jan 22, 2022 — W vs Genaro Valdez Δ+19Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Ottman Azaitar Δ+21May 6, 2023 — W vs Drew Dober Δ+22Nov 11, 2023 — L vs Benoit Saint Denis Δ-16Sep 28, 2024 — L vs Fares Ziam Δ-17Oct 18, 2025 — L vs Kyle Nelson Δ-18 14321473151315541594 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":183.8,"elo":1472,"date":"2018-01-14","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":112.1,"y":183.4,"elo":1472,"date":"2018-11-03","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"D","delta":0},{"i":2,"x":160.5,"y":141.5,"elo":1504,"date":"2019-04-13","opp":"Jalin Turner","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":215.2,"y":96.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Luis Pena","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":356.2,"y":132.9,"elo":1511,"date":"2021-01-23","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":398.3,"y":157.6,"elo":1492,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":465.6,"y":133.1,"elo":1511,"date":"2022-01-22","opp":"Genaro Valdez","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":554,"y":105.1,"elo":1532,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Ottman Azaitar","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":606.6,"y":76.2,"elo":1554,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":9,"x":663.5,"y":96.5,"elo":1539,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Benoit Saint Denis","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":10,"x":760.3,"y":119.1,"elo":1522,"date":"2024-09-28","opp":"Fares Ziam","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":142.5,"elo":1504,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 18, 2025 Kyle Nelson L -18
Sep 28, 2024 Fares Ziam L -17
Nov 11, 2023 Benoit Saint Denis L -16
May 6, 2023 Drew Dober W +22
Nov 12, 2022 Ottman Azaitar W +21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.83 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.27 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.88 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
41% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
38% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.50 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
3 / 5
Finish rate
KO
3
60% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
40% of wins
KO: 3 (60%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (40%) 2
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
3 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1564
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.5
actual -1 vs expected