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Matt Frevola "The SteamRolla"

Active #65 lightweight · age 36 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 71" 180 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 60% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 60% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1453
Global Elo 1504 ±39
Rank
#65
top 73% of division
UFC record
5-6-1
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Oct 18, 2025
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 41m
Avg fight time
8:22
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
1.5
Since last fight
8mo

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Jan 14, 2018 — L vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ-28Nov 3, 2018 — D vs Lando Vannata Δ+0Apr 13, 2019 — W vs Jalin Turner Δ+32Oct 12, 2019 — W vs Luis Pena Δ+34Jan 23, 2021 — L vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ-28Jun 12, 2021 — L vs Terrance McKinney Δ-19Jan 22, 2022 — W vs Genaro Valdez Δ+19Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Ottman Azaitar Δ+21May 6, 2023 — W vs Drew Dober Δ+22Nov 11, 2023 — L vs Benoit Saint Denis Δ-16Sep 28, 2024 — L vs Fares Ziam Δ-17Oct 18, 2025 — L vs Kyle Nelson Δ-18 140014251450147515001525 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":355.7,"elo":1421,"date":"2018-01-14","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":164.4,"y":355,"elo":1422,"date":"2018-11-03","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"D","delta":0},{"i":2,"x":205.3,"y":272.8,"elo":1454,"date":"2019-04-13","opp":"Jalin Turner","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":251.6,"y":184.7,"elo":1488,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Luis Pena","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":370.7,"y":255.9,"elo":1460,"date":"2021-01-23","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":406.3,"y":304.3,"elo":1441,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":463.2,"y":256.1,"elo":1460,"date":"2022-01-22","opp":"Genaro Valdez","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":537.9,"y":201.4,"elo":1482,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Ottman Azaitar","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":582.4,"y":144.5,"elo":1504,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":9,"x":630.4,"y":184.5,"elo":1488,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Benoit Saint Denis","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":10,"x":712.2,"y":228.8,"elo":1471,"date":"2024-09-28","opp":"Fares Ziam","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":274.6,"elo":1453,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 18, 2025 Kyle Nelson L -18
Sep 28, 2024 Fares Ziam L -17
Nov 11, 2023 Benoit Saint Denis L -16
May 6, 2023 Drew Dober W +22
Nov 12, 2022 Ottman Azaitar W +21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
3 / 5
Finish rate
KO
3
60% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
40% of wins
KO: 3 (60%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (40%) 2
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
3 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 340 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
70% Distance
  • Distance 70%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 19%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
4 of 6 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1564
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
1
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Drew Dober
Elo 1605 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.5
−0.5 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1553
1481
Notable wins
Drew Dober 1605

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Matt Frevola on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.