HonestElo
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✓ Alessandro Costa won · by Submission · R2
flyweight
Other bouts 13
Fight Card
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Jul 11, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Alessandro Costa
#20 5-3-0
Elo 1488
VS
Corner B
Cody Durden
#36 7-9-1
Elo 1422
Final result · recorded Jul 12, 2026
Alessandro Costa
defeated Cody Durden by Submission in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Alessandro Costa 67.1% · Cody Durden 32.9%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Alessandro Costa 54.5% · Cody Durden 45.5%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 11
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Main event · welterweight Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett lightweight Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista bantamweight Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh flyweight King Green vs Terrance McKinney lightweight Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker light heavyweight Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez bantamweight Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III featherweight Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong women's flyweight Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida middleweight Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese middleweight

Tale of the tape

5-3-0 UFC record 7-9-1
KO 4 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+3 Streak -1
30 Age 35
5'4" 163 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
67" 170 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1532 Global Elo 1467
1488 Elo rating 1422
Alessandro Costa — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • 3 finishes in a row
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO or submission
Cody Durden — Notable ▼
At a glance

Alessandro Costa — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 277 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 17%

Cody Durden — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 552 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 11%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.94
3.27
div avg 3.86
49%
44%
div avg 46%
3.81
3.89
div avg 3.26
54%
51%
div avg 57%
0.85
3.82
div avg 1.56
27%
48%
div avg 38%
85%
57%
div avg 63%
0.85
0.62
div avg 0.81
1
5
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Alessandro Costa
100% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 1
can finish?
Cody Durden
finished 78%
7 of 9 losses
Cody Durden
29% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Alessandro Costa
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Cody Durden has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1522 vs 1480, 0 quality wins to 0.

Alessandro Costa red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1480
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Matt Schnell
Elo 1503 at fight time
Expected wins
4.0
+1.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1587
1484
Cody Durden blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1522
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jafel Filho
Elo 1549 at fight time
Expected wins
8.1
−1.1 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 17 fights
1560
1516

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Matt Schnell
    W
    KO/TKO · R1
    Submission · R2
    Jun 6, 2026
    Sep 7, 2024
  • W
    Jimmy Flick
    L
    KO/TKO · R2
    Submission · R1
    Jun 17, 2023
    Dec 19, 2020
Corner A recent form
Alessandro Costa
Corner B recent form
Cody Durden
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Alessandro Costa & Cody Durden on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.