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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

2-0-0 UFC record 2-2-1
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+2 Streak +1
26 Age 31
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1551 Global Elo 1492
1525 Elo rating 1441
Luke Riley — Notable
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO
Kai Kamaka Iii — Notable
At a glance

Luke Riley — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 114 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 5%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 8%

Kai Kamaka Iii — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 375 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
43% Head
  • Head 43%
  • Body 43%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.56
5.40
div avg 4.31
57%
59%
div avg 48%
3.32
5.67
div avg 3.46
65%
56%
div avg 56%
0.00
1.51
div avg 1.56
54%
div avg 41%
38%
55%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.22
div avg 0.48
0
3
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Luke Riley
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Kai Kamaka Iii
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Kai Kamaka Iii
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Luke Riley
finished
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1504 (Luke Riley) vs 1481 (Kai Kamaka Iii).

Luke Riley red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1504
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Michael Aswell Jr.
Elo 1505 at fight time
Expected wins
1.0
+1.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1504
1505
Kai Kamaka Iii blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1481
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tony Kelley
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.5
−0.6 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1500
Corner A recent form
Luke Riley
Corner B recent form
Kai Kamaka Iii
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Luke Riley & Kai Kamaka Iii on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.