✓ Luke Riley won · by TKO · R1
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka Iii — Honest Elo matchup
featherweight
Other bouts 13
Fight Card
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Jul 11, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
- 1welterweight MainConor McGregorvsMax Holloway
- 2lightweightBenoit Saint DenisvsPaddy Pimblett
- 3bantamweightCory SandhagenvsMario Bautista
- 4flyweightBrandon RoyvalvsLone'er Kavanagh
- 5lightweightKing GreenvsTerrance McKinney
- 6light heavyweightNikita KrylovvsRobert Whittaker
- 7Not linkedheavyweightGable StevesonvsElisha Ellison
- 8bantamweightCody GarbrandtvsAdrian Yanez
- 10women's flyweightTracy CortezvsWang Cong
- 11middleweightDamian PinasvsCesar Almeida
- 12Not linkedbantamweightFarid BasharatvsJohn Garza
- 13middleweightRyan GandravsZach Reese
- 14flyweightAlessandro CostavsCody Durden
Final result · recorded Jul 12, 2026
Luke Riley
defeated Kai Kamaka Iii by TKO in round 1
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Luke Riley 63.8% · Kai Kamaka Iii 36.2%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Luke Riley 58.3% · Kai Kamaka Iii 41.7%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 11
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Main event · welterweight Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett lightweight Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista bantamweight Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh flyweight King Green vs Terrance McKinney lightweight Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker light heavyweight Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez bantamweight Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong women's flyweight Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida middleweight Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese middleweight Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden flyweight
Tale of the tape
| 3-0-0 | UFC record | 2-4-1 |
| KO 2 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +3 | Streak | -2 |
| 27 | Age | 31 |
| 5'9" 175 cm | Height | 5'7" 170 cm |
| 69" 175 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1587 | Global Elo | 1461 |
| 1561 | Elo rating | 1415 |
Luke Riley — Notable ▼
At a glance
- 3-fight UFC win streak — still undefeated
- 67% of wins by KO/TKO
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
Kai Kamaka Iii — Notable ▼
Luke Riley — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 157 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
68% Head
- Head 68%
- Body 26%
- Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
- Distance 82%
- Clinch 11%
- Ground 7%
Kai Kamaka Iii — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 431 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
44% Head
- Head 44%
- Body 40%
- Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
- Distance 85%
- Clinch 12%
- Ground 3%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
6.67
Top 5 · featherweight
Strikes Landed per Minute
- 1Tommy Mcmillen12.80
- 2Hyder Amil7.28
- 3Marwan Rahiki6.87
- 4Luke Riley6.67
- 5Michael Aswell Jr.6.22
div avg 4.59
59%
Top 5 · featherweight
Striking Accuracy
- 1Erik Silva67%
- 2Isaac Dulgarian64%
- 3Gabriel Santos61%
- 4Bogdan Grad59%
- 5Luke Riley59%
div avg 49%
3.86
Top 5 · featherweight
Lowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Yadier Del Valle0.90
- 2Pat Sabatini1.16
- 3Jordan Leavitt1.63
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.65
- 5Erik Silva1.66
div avg 3.37
61%
Top 5 · featherweight
Striking Defense
- 1Felipe Lima68%
- 2Miles Johns67%
- 3Mairon Santos66%
- 4Yadier Del Valle66%
- 5Youssef Zalal65%
div avg 57%
0.00
Top 5 · featherweight
Takedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Bogdan Grad5.33
- 2Movsar Evloev4.78
- 3Gabriel Miranda4.75
- 4Isaac Dulgarian4.57
- 5Pat Sabatini4.27
div avg 1.42
—
Top 5 · featherweight
Takedown Accuracy
- 1Tommy Mcmillen100%
- 2Yadier Del Valle100%
- 3Gaston Bolanos75%
- 4Erik Silva75%
- 5Jean Silva67%
div avg 42%
38%
Top 5 · featherweight
Takedown Defense
- 1Fernando Padilla100%
- 2Jose Aldo92%
- 3Kevin Vallejos90%
- 4Felipe Lima90%
- 5Sean Woodson88%
div avg 65%
0.00
Top 5 · featherweight
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Westin Wilson7.87
- 2Yadier Del Valle2.71
- 3Gabriel Miranda1.90
- 4Isaac Dulgarian1.83
- 5Daniel Pineda1.54
div avg 0.48
0
Top 5 · featherweight
Control Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Pat Sabatini10.65
- 2Isaac Dulgarian10.58
- 3Bogdan Grad6.76
- 4Jordan Leavitt5.97
- 5Darren Elkins5.51
div avg 3
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Luke Riley
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Kai Kamaka Iii
finished 75%
3 of 4 losses
Kai Kamaka Iii
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Luke Riley
finished —
no losses
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1500 (Luke Riley) vs 1502 (Kai Kamaka Iii).
Luke Riley red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Michael Aswell Jr.
Elo 1505 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career
· 3 fights
1504 1492
Kai Kamaka Iii blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1502
UFC level Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tony Kelley
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
3.4
−1.4 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career
· 7 fights
1500 1518
Corner A recent form
Luke Riley
- Jul 11, 2026
- Mar 21, 2026
- Nov 22, 2025
Corner B recent form
Kai Kamaka Iii
- Oct 10, 2026
- Jul 11, 2026
- Apr 4, 2026
- Jul 31, 2021
- May 1, 2021
Source
Per-fighter stats and bout records from
Luke Riley & Kai Kamaka Iii on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.