HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Luke Riley won · by TKO · R1
featherweight
Other bouts 13
Fight Card
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Jul 11, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Luke Riley
#21 3-0-0
Elo 1561
VS
Corner B
Kai Kamaka Iii
#63 2-3-1
Elo 1428
Final result · recorded Jul 12, 2026
Luke Riley
defeated Kai Kamaka Iii by TKO in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Luke Riley 63.8% · Kai Kamaka Iii 36.2%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Luke Riley 58.3% · Kai Kamaka Iii 41.7%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 11
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Main event · welterweight Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett lightweight Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista bantamweight Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh flyweight King Green vs Terrance McKinney lightweight Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker light heavyweight Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez bantamweight Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong women's flyweight Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida middleweight Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese middleweight Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden flyweight

Tale of the tape

3-0-0 UFC record 2-3-1
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+3 Streak -1
27 Age 31
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1587 Global Elo 1477
1561 Elo rating 1428
Luke Riley — Notable ▼
At a glance
Kai Kamaka Iii — Notable ▼
At a glance

Luke Riley — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 157 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
68% Head
  • Head 68%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 7%

Kai Kamaka Iii — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 398 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
42% Head
  • Head 42%
  • Body 41%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.67
5.49
div avg 4.36
59%
59%
div avg 49%
3.86
6.03
div avg 3.45
61%
55%
div avg 57%
0.00
1.45
div avg 1.47
—
54%
div avg 41%
38%
55%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.21
div avg 0.45
0
3
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Luke Riley
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Kai Kamaka Iii
finished 67%
2 of 3 losses
Kai Kamaka Iii
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Luke Riley
finished —
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1500 (Luke Riley) vs 1493 (Kai Kamaka Iii).

Luke Riley red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Michael Aswell Jr.
Elo 1505 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1504
1492
Kai Kamaka Iii blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1493
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tony Kelley
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
3.0
−0.9 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1500
1560
Corner A recent form
Luke Riley
Corner B recent form
Kai Kamaka Iii
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Luke Riley & Kai Kamaka Iii on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.