HonestElo
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Kyle Nelson

Active #87 lightweight · Switch · 180 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1482 ±38
LCB 1434
Rank
#87
top 86% of division
UFC record
5-6-1
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -16 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Dec 8, 2018 — L vs Diego Ferreira Δ-28May 4, 2019 — L vs Matt Sayles Δ-33Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ+42Sep 12, 2020 — L vs Billy Quarantillo Δ-26Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Jai Herbert Δ-28Feb 4, 2023 — D vs Dooho Choi Δ+4Jun 10, 2023 — W vs Blake Bilder Δ+20Sep 16, 2023 — W vs Fernando Padilla Δ+20Mar 30, 2024 — W vs Bill Algeo Δ+23Sep 7, 2024 — L vs Steve Garcia Δ-14Oct 18, 2025 — W vs Matt Frevola Δ+18Mar 28, 2026 — L vs Terrance McKinney Δ-16 13881426146415011539 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":117.5,"elo":1472,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":71,"y":164.4,"elo":1439,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Matt Sayles","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":2,"x":115.7,"y":104.8,"elo":1481,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":3,"x":229.7,"y":140.8,"elo":1456,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Billy Quarantillo","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":4,"x":446.6,"y":179.8,"elo":1428,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Jai Herbert","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":509.3,"y":174.3,"elo":1432,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Dooho Choi","result":"D","delta":4},{"i":6,"x":549.5,"y":145.9,"elo":1452,"date":"2023-06-10","opp":"Blake Bilder","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":7,"x":580.8,"y":118.3,"elo":1472,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Fernando Padilla","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":643.4,"y":85.6,"elo":1495,"date":"2024-03-30","opp":"Bill Algeo","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":9,"x":694.9,"y":105.3,"elo":1481,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Steve Garcia","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":824.6,"y":80.2,"elo":1499,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Matt Frevola","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":103.4,"elo":1482,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Terrance McKinney L -16
Oct 18, 2025 Matt Frevola W +18
Sep 7, 2024 Steve Garcia L -14
Mar 30, 2024 Bill Algeo W +23
Sep 16, 2023 Fernando Padilla W +20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.06 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.89 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.00 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
23% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.44 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
2
40% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 2 (40%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1547
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.9
actual 0 vs expected