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Kyle Nelson "The Monster"

Active #73 lightweight · age 35 · Switch · 5'11" 180 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 71" 180 cm
At a glance
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2018
Elo rating
1435
Global Elo 1482 ±36
Rank
#73
top 82% of division
UFC record
5-6-1
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -16 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 55m
Avg fight time
9:34
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
1.6
Ground control
24m
Since last fight
3mo

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Dec 8, 2018 — L vs Diego Ferreira Δ-28May 4, 2019 — L vs Matt Sayles Δ-33Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ+42Sep 12, 2020 — L vs Billy Quarantillo Δ-26Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Jai Herbert Δ-28Feb 4, 2023 — D vs Dooho Choi Δ+4Jun 10, 2023 — W vs Blake Bilder Δ+20Sep 16, 2023 — W vs Fernando Padilla Δ+20Mar 30, 2024 — W vs Bill Algeo Δ+23Sep 7, 2024 — L vs Steve Garcia Δ-14Oct 18, 2025 — W vs Matt Frevola Δ+18Mar 28, 2026 — L vs Terrance McKinney Δ-16 1360138014001420144014601480 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":235.9,"elo":1425,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":129.7,"y":324.9,"elo":1392,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Matt Sayles","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":2,"x":167.5,"y":211.9,"elo":1434,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":3,"x":263.9,"y":280.1,"elo":1409,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Billy Quarantillo","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":4,"x":447.2,"y":354,"elo":1381,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Jai Herbert","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":500.1,"y":343.6,"elo":1385,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Dooho Choi","result":"D","delta":4},{"i":6,"x":534.1,"y":289.7,"elo":1405,"date":"2023-06-10","opp":"Blake Bilder","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":7,"x":560.6,"y":237.5,"elo":1425,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Fernando Padilla","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":613.5,"y":175.3,"elo":1448,"date":"2024-03-30","opp":"Bill Algeo","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":9,"x":656.9,"y":212.7,"elo":1434,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Steve Garcia","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":766.5,"y":165.2,"elo":1452,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Matt Frevola","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":209.2,"elo":1435,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Terrance McKinney L -16
Oct 18, 2025 Matt Frevola W +18
Sep 7, 2024 Steve Garcia L -14
Mar 30, 2024 Bill Algeo W +23
Sep 16, 2023 Fernando Padilla W +20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
2
40% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 2 (40%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 413 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
56% Head
  • Head 56%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 3%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
83%
of losses by finish
5 of 6 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 1 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1547
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Bill Algeo
Elo 1566 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.9
+0.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1559
1535

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Kyle Nelson on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.