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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

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By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 4

Tale of the tape

18-14-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 9 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-3 Streak -1
40 Age 30
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1572 Global Elo 1543
1524 Elo rating 1495
Edson Barboza — Notable
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Esteban Ribovics — Notable
At a glance

Edson Barboza — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1586 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
44% Head
  • Head 44%
  • Body 32%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 4%

Esteban Ribovics — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 615 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 9%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
94% Distance
  • Distance 94%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 4%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.14
7.24
div avg 4.65
45%
43%
div avg 51%
4.68
5.80
div avg 3.84
56%
54%
div avg 54%
0.43
0.35
div avg 1.84
50%
67%
div avg 38%
73%
66%
div avg 72%
0.08
0.18
div avg 0.62
1
1
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Edson Barboza
50% finish rate
KO 9 · Sub 0
can finish?
Esteban Ribovics
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Esteban Ribovics
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Edson Barboza
finished 50%
7 of 14 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Edson Barboza has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1605 vs 1571, 4 quality wins to 0.

Edson Barboza red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1605
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 18 UFC wins
Toughest win
Beneil Dariush
Elo 1644 at fight time
Expected wins
16.9
+1.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 32 fights
1500
1552
Esteban Ribovics blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1571
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Daniel Zellhuber
Elo 1560 at fight time
Expected wins
3.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1500
1637
Corner A recent form
Edson Barboza
Corner B recent form
Esteban Ribovics
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Edson Barboza & Esteban Ribovics on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.