HonestElo
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Rafaello Oliveira

Inactive · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1449 ±30
LCB 1410
Rank
—
—
UFC record
2-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d +31 · Δ1y +31
Last fight
Feb 22, 2014
L by KO

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Sep 19, 2009 — L vs Nik Lentz Δ-29Jan 2, 2010 — W vs John Gunderson Δ+31Mar 31, 2010 — L vs Andre Winner Δ-29May 28, 2011 — L vs Gleison Tibau Δ-24Oct 1, 2011 — L vs Yves Edwards Δ-23Jul 7, 2012 — W vs Yoislandy Izquierdo Δ+18Jul 6, 2013 — L vs Edson Barboza Δ-11Feb 22, 2014 — L vs Erik Koch Δ-15 13781419146015011542 20102011201220132014 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":116,"elo":1471,"date":"2009-09-19","opp":"Nik Lentz","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":79.3,"y":75.7,"elo":1502,"date":"2010-01-02","opp":"John Gunderson","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":125.7,"y":113.1,"elo":1474,"date":"2010-03-31","opp":"Andre Winner","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":348.6,"y":144.5,"elo":1449,"date":"2011-05-28","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":415,"y":174.3,"elo":1426,"date":"2011-10-01","opp":"Yves Edwards","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":5,"x":562.5,"y":151.2,"elo":1444,"date":"2012-07-07","opp":"Yoislandy Izquierdo","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":754.3,"y":165.4,"elo":1433,"date":"2013-07-06","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":184.3,"elo":1418,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Erik Koch","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 22, 2014 Erik Koch L -15
Jul 6, 2013 Edson Barboza L -11
Jul 7, 2012 Yoislandy Izquierdo W +18
Oct 1, 2011 Yves Edwards L -23
May 28, 2011 Gleison Tibau L -24

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.95 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
33% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.00 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.21 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
37% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
11% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.42 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 2
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (100%) 2

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1538
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.3
actual -1 vs expected