HonestElo
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Jamie Varner

Inactive · age 41 · Orthodox · 5'8" 173 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 71" 180 cm
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 67% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1446
Global Elo 1495 ±37
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
-4
Δ90d +15 · Δ1y +15
Last fight
Dec 13, 2014
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 16m
Avg fight time
8:24
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
1.1
Ground control
20m
Since last fight
11y 6mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Aug 26, 2006 — L vs Hermes Franca Δ-29Mar 3, 2007 — W vs Jason Gilliam Δ+36May 26, 2012 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+44Aug 4, 2012 — L vs Joe Lauzon Δ-29Dec 29, 2012 — W vs Melvin Guillard Δ+33Aug 31, 2013 — L vs Gleison Tibau Δ-14Feb 1, 2014 — L vs Abel Trujillo Δ-18May 24, 2014 — L vs James Krause Δ-19Dec 13, 2014 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-21 1400142514501475150015251550 2008201020122014 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":331.7,"elo":1437,"date":"2006-08-26","opp":"Hermes Franca","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":134.9,"y":255.1,"elo":1473,"date":"2007-03-03","opp":"Jason Gilliam","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":588.8,"y":161.9,"elo":1516,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":44},{"i":3,"x":605.5,"y":224.4,"elo":1487,"date":"2012-08-04","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":640.4,"y":155.1,"elo":1519,"date":"2012-12-29","opp":"Melvin Guillard","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":698.6,"y":185.6,"elo":1505,"date":"2013-08-31","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":6,"x":735.2,"y":224.8,"elo":1487,"date":"2014-02-01","opp":"Abel Trujillo","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":761.8,"y":266,"elo":1467,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"James Krause","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":311.7,"elo":1446,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 13, 2014 Drew Dober L -21
May 24, 2014 James Krause L -19
Feb 1, 2014 Abel Trujillo L -18
Aug 31, 2013 Gleison Tibau L -14
Dec 29, 2012 Melvin Guillard W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
1
33% of wins
SUB
1
33% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 243 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 5%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
65% Distance
  • Distance 65%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 21%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
83%
of losses by finish
5 of 6 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 3 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1528
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
1
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Edson Barboza
Elo 1621 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.2
−1.2 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1538
1445
Notable wins
Edson Barboza 1621

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Jamie Varner on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.