HonestElo
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Jamie Varner

Inactive · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1495 ±40
LCB 1443
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
-4
Δ90d +15 · Δ1y +15
Last fight
Dec 13, 2014
L by Submission

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Aug 26, 2006 — L vs Hermes Franca Δ-29Mar 3, 2007 — W vs Jason Gilliam Δ+36May 26, 2012 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+44Aug 4, 2012 — L vs Joe Lauzon Δ-29Dec 29, 2012 — W vs Melvin Guillard Δ+33Aug 31, 2013 — L vs Gleison Tibau Δ-14Feb 1, 2014 — L vs Abel Trujillo Δ-18May 24, 2014 — L vs James Krause Δ-19Dec 13, 2014 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-21 14311471151215531593 2008201020122014 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":183.9,"elo":1471,"date":"2006-08-26","opp":"Hermes Franca","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":77.1,"y":137.2,"elo":1506,"date":"2007-03-03","opp":"Jason Gilliam","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":614.3,"y":80.3,"elo":1550,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":44},{"i":3,"x":634,"y":118.4,"elo":1521,"date":"2012-08-04","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":675.3,"y":76.1,"elo":1553,"date":"2012-12-29","opp":"Melvin Guillard","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":744.2,"y":94.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2013-08-31","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":6,"x":787.5,"y":118.7,"elo":1521,"date":"2014-02-01","opp":"Abel Trujillo","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":818.9,"y":143.8,"elo":1501,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"James Krause","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":171.7,"elo":1480,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 13, 2014 Drew Dober L -21
May 24, 2014 James Krause L -19
Feb 1, 2014 Abel Trujillo L -18
Aug 31, 2013 Gleison Tibau L -14
Dec 29, 2012 Melvin Guillard W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.70 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
38% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.28 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.83 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
61% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.00 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
1
33% of wins
SUB
1
33% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1528
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.2
actual -1 vs expected