Other bouts 11
- 2women's strawweight TitleMackenzie DernvsGillian Robertson
- 3Not linkedcatch weightCharles JohnsonvsEduardo Chapolin
- 4middleweightMansur Abdul-MalikvsDustin Stoltzfus
- 5lightweightEdson BarbozavsEsteban Ribovics
- 6welterweightChidi NjokuanivsJoel Alvarez
- 7lightweightJalin TurnervsKaue Fernandes
- 8middleweightDonte JohnsonvsEric McConico
- 9middleweightVicente LuquevsTresean Gore
- 10Not linkedlight heavyweightRafael TobiasvsLucas Fernando
- 11welterweightNeil MagnyvsRamiz Brahimaj
- 12welterweightJeremiah WellsvsMyktybek Orolbai
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Islam Makhachev 67.1% · Ian Machado Garry 32.9%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Islam Makhachev 67.1% · Ian Machado Garry 32.9%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.
6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Title-fight record 7–0.
On a 17-fight win streak.
Tale of the tape
| 18-1-0 | UFC record | 10-2-0 |
| KO 3 · Sub 8 | Finishes | KO 3 · Sub 0 |
| +17 | Streak | -1 |
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 5'10" 178 cm | Height | 6'3" 191 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 74" 188 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1840 | Global Elo | 1690 |
| 1814 | Elo rating | 1652 |
Islam Makhachev — Notable ▼
- 17-fight UFC win streak
- 6 successful title defenses
- Top 5 · welterweightLowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Islam Makhachev1.42
- 2Jeremiah Wells1.43
- 3Seokhyeon Ko1.47
- 4Michael Page1.57
- 5Michael Chiesa1.73
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
Ian Machado Garry — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Career-best 8-fight win streak
Islam Makhachev — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 507 landed total · career
- Head 70%
- Body 23%
- Leg 7%
- Distance 58%
- Clinch 19%
- Ground 23%
Ian Machado Garry — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 804 landed total · career
- Head 55%
- Body 20%
- Leg 24%
- Distance 90%
- Clinch 6%
- Ground 4%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Carlos Leal8.75
- 2Daniil Donchenko8.07
- 3Daniel Rodriguez7.18
- 4Max Holloway6.92
- 5Jacobe Smith6.85
- 1Kiefer Crosbie64%
- 2Jacobe Smith63%
- 3Daniil Donchenko62%
- 4Chidi Njokuani62%
- 5Gunnar Nelson61%
- 1Islam Makhachev1.42
- 2Jeremiah Wells1.43
- 3Seokhyeon Ko1.47
- 4Michael Page1.57
- 5Michael Chiesa1.73
- 1Daniil Donchenko70%
- 2Seokhyeon Ko65%
- 3Gabriel Bonfim64%
- 4Muslim Salikhov62%
- 5Michael Page62%
- 1Myktybek Orolbai8.22
- 2Themba Gorimbo4.52
- 3Jacobe Smith4.52
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov3.91
- 5Colby Covington3.64
- 1Carlos Prates100%
- 2Jacobe Smith100%
- 3Themba Gorimbo63%
- 4Myktybek Orolbai60%
- 5Seokhyeon Ko59%
- 1Jacobe Smith100%
- 2Charles Radtke100%
- 3Kevin Jousset100%
- 4Rinat Fakhretdinov92%
- 5Islam Makhachev91%
- 1Preston Parsons2.31
- 2Mickey Gall1.58
- 3Ramiz Brahimaj1.44
- 4Jeremiah Wells1.31
- 5Shavkat Rakhmonov1.20
- 1Seokhyeon Ko8.40
- 2Rinat Fakhretdinov8.11
- 3Myktybek Orolbai8.08
- 4Themba Gorimbo7.92
- 5Charles Radtke7.71
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Islam Makhachev has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1712 vs 1683, 10 quality wins to 5.
- Aug 15, 2026
- Nov 15, 2025
- Jan 18, 2025
- Jun 1, 2024
- Oct 21, 2023
- Aug 15, 2026
- Nov 22, 2025
- Apr 26, 2025
- Dec 7, 2024
- Jun 29, 2024