Other bouts 11
- 1welterweight Main TitleIslam MakhachevvsIan Machado Garry
- 3Not linkedcatch weightCharles JohnsonvsEduardo Chapolin
- 4middleweightMansur Abdul-MalikvsDustin Stoltzfus
- 5lightweightEdson BarbozavsEsteban Ribovics
- 6welterweightChidi NjokuanivsJoel Alvarez
- 7lightweightJalin TurnervsKaue Fernandes
- 8middleweightDonte JohnsonvsEric McConico
- 9middleweightVicente LuquevsTresean Gore
- 10Not linkedlight heavyweightRafael TobiasvsLucas Fernando
- 11welterweightNeil MagnyvsRamiz Brahimaj
- 12welterweightJeremiah WellsvsMyktybek Orolbai
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Mackenzie Dern 58.9% · Gillian Robertson 41.1%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Mackenzie Dern 48.5% · Gillian Robertson 51.5%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
Finishes 71% of wins (3 KO · 7 SUB).
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Tale of the tape
| 12-5-0 | UFC record | 14-7-0 |
| KO 0 · Sub 5 | Finishes | KO 3 · Sub 7 |
| +4 | Streak | -1 |
| 33 | Age | 31 |
| 5'4" 163 cm | Height | 5'5" 165 cm |
| 63" 160 cm | Reach | 63" 160 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1643 | Global Elo | 1613 |
| 1592 | Elo rating | 1570 |
Mackenzie Dern — Notable ▼
- 4-fight UFC win streak
- 1 successful title defense
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
Gillian Robertson — Notable ▼
- 71% of wins by KO or submission
- Top 5 · women's strawweightControl Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Alexia Thainara9.30
- 2Tatiana Suarez8.94
- 3Gillian Robertson7.09
- 4Jaqueline Amorim6.57
- 5Virna Jandiroba6.50
- UFC veteran since 2017
Mackenzie Dern — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 851 landed total · career
- Head 74%
- Body 15%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 74%
- Clinch 10%
- Ground 17%
Gillian Robertson — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 609 landed total · career
- Head 68%
- Body 16%
- Leg 16%
- Distance 50%
- Clinch 5%
- Ground 45%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Alice Ardelean7.00
- 2Yazmin Jauregui6.64
- 3Jessica Andrade6.37
- 4Julia Polastri6.22
- 5Karolina Kowalkiewicz5.54
- 1Tatiana Suarez60%
- 2Julia Polastri58%
- 3Ketlen Souza57%
- 4Loma Lookboonmee56%
- 5Amanda Lemos55%
- 1Tatiana Suarez1.63
- 2Jaqueline Amorim2.06
- 3Josefine Knutsson2.40
- 4Loma Lookboonmee2.45
- 5Fatima Kline2.46
- 1Stephanie Luciano64%
- 2Molly McCann63%
- 3Loopy Godinez62%
- 4Iasmin Lucindo62%
- 5Fatima Kline62%
- 1Tatiana Suarez4.52
- 2Alexia Thainara4.24
- 3Piera Rodriguez4.21
- 4Carla Esparza3.28
- 5Fatima Kline3.13
- 1Josefine Knutsson75%
- 2Julia Polastri75%
- 3Yan Xiaonan73%
- 4Fatima Kline67%
- 5Stephanie Luciano63%
- 1Alexia Thainara100%
- 2Talita Alencar100%
- 3Yazmin Jauregui100%
- 4Nicolle Caliari100%
- 5Alice Ardelean86%
- 1Jaqueline Amorim4.27
- 2Alexia Thainara1.51
- 3Polyana Viana1.51
- 4Virna Jandiroba1.39
- 5Mackenzie Dern1.01
- 1Alexia Thainara9.30
- 2Tatiana Suarez8.94
- 3Gillian Robertson7.09
- 4Jaqueline Amorim6.57
- 5Virna Jandiroba6.50
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Mackenzie Dern has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1601 vs 1555, 2 quality wins to 1.
Common opponents
2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Aug 15, 2026
- Oct 25, 2025
- Jan 11, 2025
- Aug 3, 2024
- Feb 17, 2024
- Aug 15, 2026
- Mar 14, 2026
- May 3, 2025
- Nov 9, 2024
- Jun 29, 2024