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Bryce Mitchell

Active #12 bantamweight · Southpaw · 178 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1630 ±39
LCB 1580
Rank
#12
top 12% of division
UFC record
9-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 7
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -3
Last fight
Jul 26, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Jul 6, 2018 — W vs Tyler Diamond Δ+29Mar 23, 2019 — W vs Bobby Moffett Δ+26Dec 7, 2019 — W vs Matt Sayles Δ+28May 9, 2020 — W vs Charles Rosa Δ+22Oct 31, 2020 — W vs Andre Fili Δ+26Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+15Dec 10, 2022 — L vs Ilia Topuria Δ-19Sep 23, 2023 — W vs Dan Ige Δ+15Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Josh Emmett Δ-19Dec 7, 2024 — W vs Kron Gracie Δ+11Apr 12, 2025 — L vs Jean Silva Δ-19Jul 26, 2025 — W vs Said Nurmagomedov Δ+16 14891538158716361686 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":192.9,"elo":1529,"date":"2018-07-06","opp":"Tyler Diamond","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":110,"y":164.5,"elo":1555,"date":"2019-03-23","opp":"Bobby Moffett","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":2,"x":195.6,"y":134.3,"elo":1583,"date":"2019-12-07","opp":"Matt Sayles","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":246.5,"y":110.4,"elo":1606,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Charles Rosa","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":4,"x":304.4,"y":82.9,"elo":1631,"date":"2020-10-31","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":5,"x":466.4,"y":67.1,"elo":1646,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":558.9,"y":87.8,"elo":1626,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":653.8,"y":71.3,"elo":1642,"date":"2023-09-23","opp":"Dan Ige","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":681.6,"y":92.2,"elo":1622,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Josh Emmett","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":9,"x":799.6,"y":80.1,"elo":1634,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Kron Gracie","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":10,"x":841.3,"y":100.6,"elo":1615,"date":"2025-04-12","opp":"Jean Silva","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":83.6,"elo":1630,"date":"2025-07-26","opp":"Said Nurmagomedov","result":"W","delta":16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 26, 2025 Said Nurmagomedov W +16
Apr 12, 2025 Jean Silva L -19
Dec 7, 2024 Kron Gracie W +11
Dec 16, 2023 Josh Emmett L -19
Sep 23, 2023 Dan Ige W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.10 avg 3.99
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
59% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.49 avg 3.09
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.00 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
33% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.10 avg 0.34
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
7 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
22%
2 / 9
Finish rate
KO
1
11% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
7
78% of wins
KO: 1 (11%) 1 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 7 (78%) 7
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1589
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.6
actual +2 vs expected