HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Chidi Njokuani won · by Decision · R3
welterweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Aug 15, 2026 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Chidi Njokuani
#58 6-5-0
Elo 1462
VS
Corner B
Joel Alvarez
#34 8-4-0
Elo 1554
Final result · recorded Aug 16, 2026
Chidi Njokuani
defeated Joel Alvarez by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Chidi Njokuani 25.4% · Joel Alvarez 74.6%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Chidi Njokuani 31.2% · Joel Alvarez 68.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 9
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry Main event · welterweight TITLE Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson women's strawweight TITLE Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus middleweight Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics lightweight Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes lightweight Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico middleweight Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore middleweight Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj welterweight Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai welterweight

Notable

Alvarez

Finishes 88% of wins (4 KO · 3 SUB; 50% of wins end in round 1).

Tale of the tape

6-5-0 UFC record 8-4-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 4 · Sub 3
+1 Streak -2
37 Age 32
6'3" 191 cm Height 6'3" 191 cm
80" 203 cm Reach 77" 196 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1516 Global Elo 1609
1462 Elo rating 1554
Chidi Njokuani — Notable ▼
At a glance
Joel Alvarez — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 88% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1

Chidi Njokuani — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 633 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
39% Body
  • Head 36%
  • Body 39%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 22%
  • Ground 6%

Joel Alvarez — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 458 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
78% Distance
  • Distance 78%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 12%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.38
4.59
div avg 4.23
62%
53%
div avg 50%
4.06
4.13
div avg 3.15
57%
48%
div avg 56%
0.00
0.15
div avg 1.89
0%
33%
div avg 43%
75%
48%
div avg 71%
0.15
0.90
div avg 0.43
2
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Chidi Njokuani
50% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 0
can finish?
Joel Alvarez
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Joel Alvarez
88% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 3
can finish?
Chidi Njokuani
finished 60%
3 of 5 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1566 (Chidi Njokuani) vs 1578 (Joel Alvarez).

Chidi Njokuani red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1566
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Joel Alvarez
Elo 1631 at fight time
Expected wins
5.2
+0.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1500
1631
Notable wins
Joel Alvarez 1631 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1628
Joel Alvarez blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1578
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Vicente Luque
Elo 1651 at fight time
Expected wins
6.4
+1.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 12 fights
1529
1494
Notable wins
Vicente Luque 1651 Drakkar Klose 1641
Corner A recent form
Chidi Njokuani
Corner B recent form
Joel Alvarez
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Chidi Njokuani & Joel Alvarez on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.