HonestElo
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Michael Johnson

Active #53 lightweight · Southpaw · 178 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1533 ±38
LCB 1485
Rank
#53
top 52% of division
UFC record
16-16-0
KO 6 · Sub 0 · Dec 10
Streak
-1
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

32 fights · tap & drag
Dec 4, 2010 — L vs Jonathan Brookins Δ-36Jun 26, 2011 — W vs Edward Faaloloto Δ+37Oct 1, 2011 — L vs Paul Sass Δ-30Jan 28, 2012 — W vs Shane Roller Δ+29May 5, 2012 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+37Oct 5, 2012 — W vs Danny Castillo Δ+21Dec 29, 2012 — L vs Myles Jury Δ-17Apr 6, 2013 — L vs Reza Madadi Δ-21Aug 17, 2013 — W vs Joe Lauzon Δ+19Dec 28, 2013 — W vs Gleison Tibau Δ+22Mar 8, 2014 — W vs Melvin Guillard Δ+16Feb 22, 2015 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+19Aug 8, 2015 — L vs Beneil Dariush Δ-15Dec 19, 2015 — L vs Nate Diaz Δ-15Sep 17, 2016 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+23Nov 12, 2016 — L vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Δ-14Jul 7, 2017 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-22Jan 14, 2018 — L vs Darren Elkins Δ-13Aug 25, 2018 — W vs Andre Fili Δ+16Oct 27, 2018 — W vs Artem Lobov Δ+12Mar 30, 2019 — L vs Josh Emmett Δ-18Oct 26, 2019 — L vs Stevie Ray Δ-16May 13, 2020 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-21Feb 6, 2021 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-15May 14, 2022 — W vs Alan Patrick Δ+22Jul 9, 2022 — L vs Jamie Mullarkey Δ-17Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Marc Diakiese Δ+17May 20, 2023 — L vs Diego Ferreira Δ-15Feb 10, 2024 — W vs Darrius Flowers Δ+15Dec 14, 2024 — W vs Ottman Azaitar Δ+17Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Daniel Zellhuber Δ+16Mar 7, 2026 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-18 14241477153015831636 20132016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":195.9,"elo":1464,"date":"2010-12-04","opp":"Jonathan Brookins","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":1,"x":55.2,"y":159.3,"elo":1501,"date":"2011-06-26","opp":"Edward Faaloloto","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":70,"y":189.7,"elo":1470,"date":"2011-10-01","opp":"Paul Sass","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":88.2,"y":160.3,"elo":1500,"date":"2012-01-28","opp":"Shane Roller","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":103.2,"y":123.6,"elo":1536,"date":"2012-05-05","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":126.6,"y":102.3,"elo":1557,"date":"2012-10-05","opp":"Danny Castillo","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":6,"x":139.6,"y":119.4,"elo":1540,"date":"2012-12-29","opp":"Myles Jury","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":154.6,"y":140.1,"elo":1520,"date":"2013-04-06","opp":"Reza Madadi","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":8,"x":174.9,"y":120.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2013-08-17","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":195.3,"y":98.9,"elo":1561,"date":"2013-12-28","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":10,"x":206,"y":82.7,"elo":1577,"date":"2014-03-08","opp":"Melvin Guillard","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":259.6,"y":64.1,"elo":1596,"date":"2015-02-22","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":285.2,"y":79.3,"elo":1580,"date":"2015-08-08","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":305.5,"y":94,"elo":1566,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":347.2,"y":70.6,"elo":1589,"date":"2016-09-17","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":15,"x":355.8,"y":85.1,"elo":1575,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Khabib Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":16,"x":392,"y":107.5,"elo":1552,"date":"2017-07-07","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":17,"x":421.3,"y":120.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2018-01-14","opp":"Darren Elkins","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":18,"x":455.4,"y":104.4,"elo":1555,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":19,"x":465,"y":92.1,"elo":1568,"date":"2018-10-27","opp":"Artem Lobov","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":20,"x":488.5,"y":110.1,"elo":1550,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Josh Emmett","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":21,"x":520.6,"y":125.7,"elo":1534,"date":"2019-10-26","opp":"Stevie Ray","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":22,"x":551.2,"y":147.1,"elo":1513,"date":"2020-05-13","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":23,"x":592.4,"y":162.2,"elo":1498,"date":"2021-02-06","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":24,"x":663,"y":140.4,"elo":1519,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Alan Patrick","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":25,"x":671.6,"y":157.6,"elo":1502,"date":"2022-07-09","opp":"Jamie Mullarkey","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":26,"x":694,"y":140.3,"elo":1520,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Marc Diakiese","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":27,"x":719.7,"y":155.7,"elo":1504,"date":"2023-05-20","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":28,"x":760.4,"y":141,"elo":1519,"date":"2024-02-10","opp":"Darrius Flowers","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":29,"x":807.5,"y":124,"elo":1536,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Ottman Azaitar","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":30,"x":840.7,"y":108.3,"elo":1551,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Daniel Zellhuber","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":31,"x":876,"y":126.3,"elo":1533,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Drew Dober L -18
Jul 19, 2025 Daniel Zellhuber W +16
Dec 14, 2024 Ottman Azaitar W +17
Feb 10, 2024 Darrius Flowers W +15
May 20, 2023 Diego Ferreira L -15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.87 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.42 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.52 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
39% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
81% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.04 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
38%
6 / 16
Finish rate
KO
6
38% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
10
63% of wins
KO: 6 (38%) 6 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 10 (63%) 10
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
2 33%
R2
4 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1527
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
15.2
actual +1 vs expected