Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 5
- 2heavyweightSergei PavlovichvsAlex Pereira
- 3middleweightJoe PyfervsBo Nickal
- 4flyweightBrandon MorenovsCharles Johnson
- 5women's flyweightMaycee BarbervsCarli Judice
- 6Not linkedlight heavyweightQuentin PasleyvsJunior Tafa
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Notable
Cross-division matchup: the model gives Oliveira +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.
Has never been finished — all 3 losses went to the scorecards.
Finishes 84% of wins (4 KO · 17 SUB).
Finishes 71% of wins (4 KO · 1 SUB; 43% of wins end in round 1).
21 career post-fight bonuses — a perennial bonus magnet.
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Tale of the tape
| 25-11-0 | UFC record | 7-3-0 |
| KO 4 · Sub 17 | Finishes | KO 4 · Sub 1 |
| +2 | Streak | +1 |
| 37 | Age | 31 |
| 5'10" 178 cm | Height | 5'11" 180 cm |
| 74" 188 cm | Reach | 72" 183 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1740 | Global Elo | 1655 |
| 1686 | Elo rating | 1613 |
Charles Oliveira — Notable ▼
- 1 successful title defense
- Top 5 · lightweightSubmission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 84% of wins by KO or submission
Diego Lopes — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 71% of wins by KO or submission
- 43% of wins finished in round 1
Charles Oliveira — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 954 landed total · career
- Head 59%
- Body 26%
- Leg 15%
- Distance 59%
- Clinch 18%
- Ground 23%
Diego Lopes — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 462 landed total · career
- Head 72%
- Body 12%
- Leg 16%
- Distance 69%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 23%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1663 (Charles Oliveira) vs 1683 (Diego Lopes).
- Mar 7, 2026
- Oct 11, 2025
- Jun 28, 2025
- Nov 16, 2024
- Apr 13, 2024
- Jun 14, 2026
- Jan 31, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Apr 12, 2025
- Sep 14, 2024