HonestElo
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Michael Chandler

Active #61 lightweight · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1512 ±35
LCB 1466
Rank
#61
top 60% of division
UFC record
2-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -11
Last fight
Apr 12, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Jan 23, 2021 — W vs Dan Hooker Δ+44May 15, 2021 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-24Nov 6, 2021 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-20May 7, 2022 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+49Nov 12, 2022 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-18Nov 16, 2024 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-8Apr 12, 2025 — L vs Paddy Pimblett Δ-11 14601492152415571589 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":97.3,"elo":1544,"date":"2021-01-23","opp":"Dan Hooker","result":"W","delta":44},{"i":1,"x":86,"y":136.8,"elo":1520,"date":"2021-05-15","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":2,"x":182.8,"y":170.4,"elo":1500,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":3,"x":283.5,"y":89.6,"elo":1549,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":49},{"i":4,"x":388,"y":119.4,"elo":1531,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":5,"x":794.7,"y":132.5,"elo":1523,"date":"2024-11-16","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-8},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":150.9,"elo":1512,"date":"2025-04-12","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"L","delta":-11}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 12, 2025 Paddy Pimblett L -11
Nov 16, 2024 Charles Oliveira L -8
Nov 12, 2022 Dustin Poirier L -18
May 7, 2022 Tony Ferguson W +49
Nov 6, 2021 Justin Gaethje L -20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.32 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.94 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
40% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.42 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
41% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
56% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.16 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
2
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (100%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1683
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.1
actual 0 vs expected