Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 5
- 1lightweight MainCharles OliveiravsDiego Lopes
- 3middleweightJoe PyfervsBo Nickal
- 4flyweightBrandon MorenovsCharles Johnson
- 5women's flyweightMaycee BarbervsCarli Judice
- 6Not linkedlight heavyweightQuentin PasleyvsJunior Tafa
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Notable
Finishes 78% of wins (7 KO; 78% of wins end in round 1).
Finishes 80% of wins (8 KO).
7 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Title-fight record 6–3.
Reach advantage of ~5".
Tale of the tape
| 9-3-0 | UFC record | 10-3-0 |
| KO 7 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 8 · Sub 0 |
| +3 | Streak | -1 |
| 34 | Age | 39 |
| 6'3" 191 cm | Height | 6'4" 193 cm |
| 84" 213 cm | Reach | 79" 201 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1664 | Global Elo | 1706 |
| 1619 | Elo rating | 1655 |
Sergei Pavlovich — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak
- Top 5 · heavyweightKnockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Tom Aspinall3.27
- 2Sergei Pavlovich1.89
- 3Josh Hokit1.50
- 4Brando Pericic1.20
- 5Steven Asplund1.16
- 78% of wins by KO/TKO
- 78% of wins finished in round 1
Alex Pereira — Notable ▼
- 5 successful title defenses
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 80% of wins by KO/TKO
- 30% of wins finished in round 1
Sergei Pavlovich — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 285 landed total · career
- Head 83%
- Body 11%
- Leg 6%
- Distance 82%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 11%
Alex Pereira — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 697 landed total · career
- Head 47%
- Body 26%
- Leg 27%
- Distance 81%
- Clinch 10%
- Ground 8%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Brando Pericic11.00
- 2Josh Hokit10.28
- 3Steven Asplund7.65
- 4Tom Aspinall7.63
- 5Sean Sharaf7.50
- 1Louie Sutherland69%
- 2Mario Pinto69%
- 3Tom Aspinall68%
- 4Tallison Teixeira67%
- 5Josh Hokit64%
- 1Jailton Almeida1.32
- 2Mario Pinto1.88
- 3Louie Sutherland1.95
- 4Alexandr Romanov2.13
- 5Marcus Buchecha2.15
- 1Ciryl Gane61%
- 2Mario Pinto59%
- 3Brando Pericic58%
- 4Mick Parkin58%
- 5Tanner Boser58%
- 1Jailton Almeida5.57
- 2Valter Walker5.39
- 3Curtis Blaydes5.04
- 4Mario Pinto4.62
- 5Louie Sutherland4.49
- 1Robelis Despaigne100%
- 2Tom Aspinall80%
- 3Tanner Boser75%
- 4Valter Walker69%
- 5Hamdy Abdelwahab65%
- 1Tom Aspinall100%
- 2Mario Pinto100%
- 3Valter Walker100%
- 4Steven Asplund100%
- 5Hamdy Abdelwahab100%
- 1Valter Walker3.59
- 2Jailton Almeida1.64
- 3Ryan Spann1.58
- 4Tom Aspinall1.31
- 5Alexandr Romanov0.86
- 1Jailton Almeida10.49
- 2Louie Sutherland9.43
- 3Valter Walker7.97
- 4Mario Pinto7.37
- 5Alexandr Romanov7.32
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Alex Pereira has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1669 vs 1621, 7 quality wins to 4.
- May 30, 2026
- Aug 23, 2025
- Feb 1, 2025
- Jun 22, 2024
- Nov 11, 2023
- Jun 14, 2026
- Oct 4, 2025
- Mar 8, 2025
- Oct 5, 2024
- Jun 29, 2024