HonestElo
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Steve Garcia

Active #11 featherweight · Southpaw · 183 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1626 ±27
LCB 1591
Rank
#11
top 10% of division
UFC record
8-2-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+7
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +32
Last fight
Nov 1, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Feb 29, 2020 — L vs Luis Pena Δ-26Oct 9, 2021 — W vs Charlie Ontiveros Δ+33Jun 11, 2022 — L vs Maheshate Δ-34Oct 29, 2022 — W vs Chase Hooper Δ+38Apr 8, 2023 — W vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Δ+37Dec 9, 2023 — W vs Melquizael Costa Δ+16Jul 20, 2024 — W vs SeungWoo Choi Δ+15Sep 7, 2024 — W vs Kyle Nelson Δ+14Jul 12, 2025 — W vs Calvin Kattar Δ+15Nov 1, 2025 — W vs David Onama Δ+17 14341492155016081666 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198.8,"elo":1474,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Luis Pena","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":265.8,"y":168.6,"elo":1508,"date":"2021-10-09","opp":"Charlie Ontiveros","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":366.5,"y":199.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2022-06-11","opp":"Maheshate","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":424.1,"y":164.6,"elo":1512,"date":"2022-10-29","opp":"Chase Hooper","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":4,"x":490.3,"y":131,"elo":1549,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Shayilan Nuerdanbieke","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":591,"y":116.4,"elo":1565,"date":"2023-12-09","opp":"Melquizael Costa","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":683.1,"y":102.8,"elo":1580,"date":"2024-07-20","opp":"SeungWoo Choi","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":703.3,"y":90.1,"elo":1594,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":829.9,"y":76.4,"elo":1609,"date":"2025-07-12","opp":"Calvin Kattar","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":60.5,"elo":1626,"date":"2025-11-01","opp":"David Onama","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 1, 2025 David Onama W +17
Jul 12, 2025 Calvin Kattar W +15
Sep 7, 2024 Kyle Nelson W +14
Jul 20, 2024 SeungWoo Choi W +15
Dec 9, 2023 Melquizael Costa W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.44 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.33 avg 3.03
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
63% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.71 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
57% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.35 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
7 / 8
Finish rate
KO
7
88% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
13% of wins
KO: 7 (88%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (13%) 1
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
4 57%
R2
3 43%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1532
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.2
actual +3 vs expected