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Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Las Vegas
Oct 31, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Nolan

On a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the tape

13-7-0 UFC record 5-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 7 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak +5
37 Age 26
5'11" 180 cm Height 6'3" 191 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 73" 185 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1642 Global Elo 1602
1598 Elo rating 1559
Renato Moicano — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 69% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Tom Nolan — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 5-fight UFC win streak
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1

Renato Moicano — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 771 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 14%

Tom Nolan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 255 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 32%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 6%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.10
4.72
div avg 4.56
49%
45%
div avg 51%
3.55
3.80
div avg 3.65
60%
48%
div avg 53%
1.68
1.11
div avg 1.98
40%
27%
div avg 38%
64%
58%
div avg 72%
0.56
1.39
div avg 0.69
3
3
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Renato Moicano
69% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 7
can finish?
Tom Nolan
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses
Tom Nolan
40% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Renato Moicano
finished 71%
5 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Renato Moicano has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1657 vs 1519, 3 quality wins to 1.

Renato Moicano red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1657
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 13 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cub Swanson
Elo 1620 at fight time
Expected wins
9.9
+3.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 20 fights
1463
1616
Tom Nolan blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1519
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Fares Ziam
Elo 1613 at fight time
Expected wins
3.1
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1476
1613
Notable wins
Corner A recent form
Renato Moicano
Corner B recent form
Tom Nolan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Renato Moicano & Tom Nolan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.