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featherweight
Other bouts 1
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night 292
Oct 31, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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Corner A
Julian Erosa
#59 9-9-0
Elo 1449
VS
Corner B
Jeongyeong Lee
#61 2-2-0
Elo 1445

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Julian Erosa 50.0%
Corner B Jeongyeong Lee 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 1
Gaston Bolanos vs Francis Marshall featherweight

Notable

Form

Both enter off a loss (Mar 2026 / May 2025).

Tale of the tape

9-9-0 UFC record 2-2-0
KO 2 · Sub 4 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-2 Streak -2
37 Age 30
6'1" 185 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 73" 185 cm
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
1505 Global Elo 1499
1449 Elo rating 1445
Julian Erosa — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 44% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2015
Jeongyeong Lee — Notable ▼

Julian Erosa — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 855 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 9%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
78% Distance
  • Distance 78%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 6%

Jeongyeong Lee — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 146 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 12%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.06
3.17
div avg 4.36
48%
49%
div avg 49%
6.23
3.80
div avg 3.45
49%
51%
div avg 57%
1.81
0.65
div avg 1.47
45%
67%
div avg 41%
62%
74%
div avg 65%
0.74
0.00
div avg 0.45
2
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Julian Erosa
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 4
can finish?
Jeongyeong Lee
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Jeongyeong Lee
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Julian Erosa
finished 78%
7 of 9 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Julian Erosa has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1568 vs 1514, 1 quality wins to 0.

Julian Erosa red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1568
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Darren Elkins
Elo 1615 at fight time
Expected wins
7.7
+1.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 18 fights
1500
1500
Notable wins
Darren Elkins 1615
Jeongyeong Lee blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Yizha
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.1
−0.1 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1542
Corner A recent form
Julian Erosa
Corner B recent form
Jeongyeong Lee
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Julian Erosa & Jeongyeong Lee on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.