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Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal — Honest Elo matchup

welterweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Las Vegas
Oct 31, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Randy Brown
#27 14-8-0
Elo 1558
VS
Corner B
Carlos Leal
#50 2-2-0
Elo 1479

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Randy Brown 50.0%
Corner B Carlos Leal 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 7
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Main event · lightweight Yana Santos vs Luana Santos women's bantamweight Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez women's strawweight Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee featherweight Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos featherweight Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski middleweight Ode Osbourne vs Cody Durden flyweight

Tale of the tape

14-8-0 UFC record 2-2-0
KO 4 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-2 Streak +1
36 Age 32
6'3" 191 cm Height 5'11" 180 cm
78" 198 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1607 Global Elo 1528
1558 Elo rating 1479
Randy Brown — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2016
Carlos Leal — Notable ▼
At a glance

Randy Brown — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1016 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
62% Head
  • Head 62%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 15%
  • Ground 8%

Carlos Leal — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 306 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
87% Distance
  • Distance 87%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.39
8.75
div avg 4.36
47%
47%
div avg 50%
3.35
7.78
div avg 3.18
54%
49%
div avg 56%
0.71
0.43
div avg 1.85
34%
11%
div avg 44%
75%
91%
div avg 70%
0.52
0.00
div avg 0.45
2
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Randy Brown
50% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 3
can finish?
Carlos Leal
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Carlos Leal
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Randy Brown
finished 63%
5 of 8 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1603 (Randy Brown) vs 1580 (Carlos Leal).

Randy Brown red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1603
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
5
of 14 UFC wins
Toughest win
Francisco Trinaldo
Elo 1657 at fight time
Expected wins
11.2
+2.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 22 fights
1475
1576
Notable wins
Francisco Trinaldo 1657 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1632 Warlley Alves 1606 Khaos Williams 1605 Muslim Salikhov 1601
Carlos Leal blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1580
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alex Morono
Elo 1565 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1628
1510

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

Corner A recent form
Randy Brown
Corner B recent form
Carlos Leal
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Randy Brown & Carlos Leal on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.