HonestElo
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Tom Nolan

Active #27 lightweight
Elo rating
1584 ±35
LCB 1539
Rank
#27
top 26% of division
UFC record
4-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +34
Last fight
Sep 27, 2025
W by Submission

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Jan 13, 2024 — L vs Nikolas Motta Δ-35May 18, 2024 — W vs Victor Martinez Δ+34Aug 17, 2024 — W vs Alex Reyes Δ+24Feb 8, 2025 — W vs Viacheslav Borshchev Δ+28Sep 27, 2025 — W vs Charlie Campbell Δ+34 14251475152415741624 2025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":193.5,"elo":1465,"date":"2024-01-13","opp":"Nikolas Motta","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":1,"x":196.3,"y":157.9,"elo":1498,"date":"2024-05-18","opp":"Victor Martinez","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":320.8,"y":132.1,"elo":1523,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Alex Reyes","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":3,"x":560.1,"y":102.6,"elo":1550,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Viacheslav Borshchev","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":66.5,"elo":1584,"date":"2025-09-27","opp":"Charlie Campbell","result":"W","delta":34}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 27, 2025 Charlie Campbell W +34
Feb 8, 2025 Viacheslav Borshchev W +28
Aug 17, 2024 Alex Reyes W +24
May 18, 2024 Victor Martinez W +34
Jan 13, 2024 Nikolas Motta L -35

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.98 avg 4.02
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.20 avg 3.36
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
48% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.67 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
22% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
71% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.67 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1492
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.6
actual +1 vs expected