Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 11
- 1lightweight MainRenato MoicanovsTom Nolan
- 4welterweightRandy BrownvsCarlos Leal
- 6women's bantamweightYana SantosvsLuana Santos
- 11women's strawweightTalita AlencarvsPiera Rodriguez
- 12featherweightJulian ErosavsJeongYeong Lee
- 14middleweightAzamat BekoevvsAndre Petroski
- 15Not linkedwomen's flyweightLucia SzabovavsTainara Lisboa
- 16Not linkedmiddleweightNick KleinvsJoe Kropschot
- 17Not linkedwelterweightJean-Paul LebosnoyanivsFarman Hasanov
- 18Not linkedwelterweightRodrigo SezinandovsTheodor Berggren
- 19flyweightOde OsbournevsCody Durden
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Other fights on this card · 7
Notable
Cross-division matchup: the model gives Marshall +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.
Tale of the tape
| 4-3-0 | UFC record | 3-2-0 |
| KO 1 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +2 | Streak | +1 |
| 27 | Age | 34 |
| 5'9" 175 cm | Height | 5'7" 170 cm |
| 72" 183 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1504 | Global Elo | 1509 |
| 1458 | Elo rating | 1455 |
Francis Marshall — Notable ▼
- 50% of wins by KO or submission
- 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Gaston Bolanos — Notable ▼
- Top 5 · featherweightTakedown Accuracy
- 1Tommy Mcmillen100%
- 2Yadier Del Valle100%
- 3Gaston Bolanos75%
- 4Erik Silva75%
- 5Jean Silva67%
Francis Marshall — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 172 landed total · career
- Head 82%
- Body 7%
- Leg 11%
- Distance 89%
- Clinch 5%
- Ground 6%
Gaston Bolanos — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 236 landed total · career
- Head 44%
- Body 29%
- Leg 27%
- Distance 81%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 15%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1493 (Francis Marshall) vs 1478 (Gaston Bolanos).
- Apr 25, 2026
- Feb 28, 2026
- Mar 8, 2025
- Aug 24, 2024
- Aug 12, 2023
- Jun 20, 2026
- May 3, 2025
- Nov 9, 2024
- Jan 13, 2024
- Apr 15, 2023