HonestElo
← Back to event card
featherweight
Other bouts 1
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night 292
Oct 31, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Gaston Bolanos
#53 3-2-0
Elo 1455
VS
Corner B
Francis Marshall
#63 4-3-0
Elo 1458

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Gaston Bolanos 50.0%
Corner B Francis Marshall 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 1
Julian Erosa vs Jeongyeong Lee Main event · featherweight

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Marshall +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Tale of the tape

3-2-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak +2
33 Age 27
5'7" 170 cm Height 5'9" 175 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1509 Global Elo 1504
1455 Elo rating 1458
Gaston Bolanos — Notable ▼
At a glance
Francis Marshall — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights

Gaston Bolanos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 236 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
44% Head
  • Head 44%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 15%

Francis Marshall — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 172 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 7%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 6%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.91
2.34
div avg 4.36
48%
29%
div avg 49%
3.54
3.14
div avg 3.45
55%
54%
div avg 57%
0.75
2.04
div avg 1.47
75%
42%
div avg 41%
50%
89%
div avg 65%
0.00
0.61
div avg 0.45
2
5
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Gaston Bolanos
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Francis Marshall
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Francis Marshall
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Gaston Bolanos
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1478 (Gaston Bolanos) vs 1493 (Francis Marshall).

Gaston Bolanos red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1478
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cortavious Romious
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.7
+0.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1415
1478
Francis Marshall blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1493
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Lucas Brennan
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
3.5
+0.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1441
1500
Corner A recent form
Gaston Bolanos
Corner B recent form
Francis Marshall
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Gaston Bolanos & Francis Marshall on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.