Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 11
- 1heavyweight MainCiryl GanevsJosh Hokit
- 2women's bantamweightKayla HarrisonvsAmanda Nunes
- 3middleweightCaio BorralhovsYousri Belgaroui
- 4welterweightUros MedicvsKevin Holland
- 5Not linkedflyweightBilal HasanvsLuis Gurule
- 6welterweightStephen ThompsonvsCharles Radtke
- 8lightweightJim MillervsTerrance McKinney
- 9middleweightDonte JohnsonvsBaisangur Susurkaev
- 10women's bantamweightMacy ChiassonvsBia Mesquita
- 11bantamweightAdrian YanezvsJuan Diaz
- 12Not linkedlightweightNazim SadykhovvsJefferson Nascimento
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
Finishes 80% of wins (11 KO · 1 SUB; 47% of wins end in round 1).
10 career post-fight bonuses — a perennial bonus magnet.
Tale of the tape
| 15-11-0 | UFC record | 6-2-0 |
| KO 11 · Sub 1 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 3 |
| +2 | Streak | -1 |
| 37 | Age | 33 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'10" 178 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 71" 180 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1577 | Global Elo | 1598 |
| 1530 | Elo rating | 1558 |
Drew Dober — Notable ▼
- Performance of the Night in last fight
- 2 KO/TKO finishes in a row
- Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
- 80% of wins by KO or submission
Chris Duncan — Notable ▼
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 50% of wins by submission
- 33% of wins finished in round 1
Drew Dober — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 994 landed total · career
- Head 63%
- Body 23%
- Leg 14%
- Distance 79%
- Clinch 11%
- Ground 9%
Chris Duncan — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 321 landed total · career
- Head 60%
- Body 23%
- Leg 17%
- Distance 82%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 11%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1541 (Drew Dober) vs 1553 (Chris Duncan).
Common opponents
3 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Mar 7, 2026
- Oct 18, 2025
- Mar 29, 2025
- Jul 13, 2024
- Feb 3, 2024
- Apr 4, 2026
- Dec 6, 2025
- Aug 2, 2025
- Mar 22, 2025
- Sep 28, 2024