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Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita — Honest Elo matchup

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Chiasson

Reach advantage of ~5".

Tale of the tape

8-6-0 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 3 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 3
-3 Streak +3
35 Age 35
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'4" 163 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1549 Global Elo 1591
1503 Elo rating 1565
Macy Chiasson — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 63% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2018
Bia Mesquita — Notable ▼
At a glance

Macy Chiasson — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 490 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
55% Head
  • Head 55%
  • Body 35%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
48% Distance
  • Distance 48%
  • Clinch 31%
  • Ground 21%

Bia Mesquita — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 57 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
93% Head
  • Head 93%
  • Body 4%
  • Leg 4%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Ground
  • Distance 19%
  • Clinch 0%
  • Ground 81%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.21
4.52
div avg 3.78
46%
57%
div avg 49%
2.76
1.27
div avg 3.32
45%
71%
div avg 56%
1.87
3.57
div avg 1.32
36%
75%
div avg 39%
63%
0%
div avg 63%
0.39
3.57
div avg 0.45
5
8
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Macy Chiasson
63% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 2
can finish?
Bia Mesquita
finished —
no losses
Bia Mesquita
100% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Macy Chiasson
finished 33%
2 of 6 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Macy Chiasson has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1557 vs 1501, 0 quality wins to 0.

Macy Chiasson red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1557
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Norma Dumont
Elo 1562 at fight time
Expected wins
7.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1500
1596
Bia Mesquita blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1501
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Montse Rendon
Elo 1529 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1473
1501
Corner A recent form
Macy Chiasson
Corner B recent form
Bia Mesquita
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Macy Chiasson & Bia Mesquita on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.