Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 11
- 1heavyweight MainCiryl GanevsJosh Hokit
- 3middleweightCaio BorralhovsYousri Belgaroui
- 4welterweightUros MedicvsKevin Holland
- 5Not linkedflyweightBilal HasanvsLuis Gurule
- 6welterweightStephen ThompsonvsCharles Radtke
- 7lightweightDrew DobervsChris Duncan
- 8lightweightJim MillervsTerrance McKinney
- 9middleweightDonte JohnsonvsBaisangur Susurkaev
- 10women's bantamweightMacy ChiassonvsBia Mesquita
- 11bantamweightAdrian YanezvsJuan Diaz
- 12Not linkedlightweightNazim SadykhovvsJefferson Nascimento
The result may differ from Pure Elo because in Honest Elo mode the opening market line carries information the pure-Elo model can't see — camp news, weight cuts, recent form. Not betting advice.
See methodologyHonest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
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Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Title-fight record 11–1.
Tale of the tape
| 3-0-0 | UFC record | 16-2-0 |
| KO 0 · Sub 2 | Finishes | KO 7 · Sub 3 |
| +3 | Streak | +2 |
| 36 | Age | 38 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'8" 173 cm |
| 66" 168 cm | Reach | 69" 175 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1615 | Global Elo | 1689 |
| 1589 | Elo rating | 1646 |
Kayla Harrison — Notable ▼
- 3-fight UFC win streak — still undefeated
- Top 5 · women's bantamweightStriking Accuracy
- 1Kayla Harrison62%
- 2Yana Santos58%
- 3Bia Mesquita57%
- 4Mayra Bueno Silva57%
- 5Karol Rosa56%
- Top 5 · women's bantamweightLowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Kayla Harrison1.10
- 2Bia Mesquita1.27
- 3Ailin Perez1.79
- 4Nora Cornolle1.95
- 5Melissa Croden2.17
- Top 5 · women's bantamweightTakedown Defense
- 1Kayla Harrison100%
- 2Hailey Cowan100%
- 3Ketlen Vieira90%
- 4Luana Santos86%
- 5Jacqueline Cavalcanti86%
Amanda Nunes — Notable ▼
- 10 successful title defenses
- 63% of wins by KO or submission
- 56% of wins finished in round 1
- UFC veteran since 2013
Kayla Harrison — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 136 landed total · career
- Head 71%
- Body 20%
- Leg 9%
- Distance 29%
- Clinch 18%
- Ground 53%
Amanda Nunes — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 928 landed total · career
- Head 68%
- Body 13%
- Leg 19%
- Distance 69%
- Clinch 4%
- Ground 28%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Josiane Nunes5.65
- 2Klaudia Sygula5.59
- 3Karol Rosa5.47
- 4Jacqueline Cavalcanti5.30
- 5Joselyne Edwards4.61
- 1Kayla Harrison62%
- 2Yana Santos58%
- 3Bia Mesquita57%
- 4Mayra Bueno Silva57%
- 5Karol Rosa56%
- 1Kayla Harrison1.10
- 2Bia Mesquita1.27
- 3Ailin Perez1.79
- 4Nora Cornolle1.95
- 5Melissa Croden2.17
- 1Bia Mesquita71%
- 2Jacqueline Cavalcanti69%
- 3Kayla Harrison66%
- 4Alice Pereira66%
- 5Luana Santos64%
- 1Ailin Perez4.34
- 2Bia Mesquita3.57
- 3Kayla Harrison2.84
- 4Melissa Mullins2.20
- 5Hailey Cowan2.15
- 1Daria Zhelezniakova100%
- 2Bia Mesquita75%
- 3Norma Dumont56%
- 4Julianna Pena55%
- 5Chelsea Chandler50%
- 1Kayla Harrison100%
- 2Hailey Cowan100%
- 3Ketlen Vieira90%
- 4Luana Santos86%
- 5Jacqueline Cavalcanti86%
- 1Bia Mesquita3.57
- 2Mayra Bueno Silva1.21
- 3Luana Santos0.97
- 4Kayla Harrison0.95
- 5Miesha Tate0.88
- 1Kayla Harrison8.91
- 2Luana Santos8.28
- 3Bia Mesquita8.14
- 4Melissa Mullins6.51
- 5Ailin Perez6.26
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1594 (Kayla Harrison) vs 1576 (Amanda Nunes).
Common opponents
3 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Jun 7, 2025
- Oct 5, 2024
- Apr 13, 2024
- Jun 10, 2023
- Jul 30, 2022
- Dec 11, 2021
- Mar 6, 2021
- Jun 6, 2020