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Mateusz Rebecki

Active #44 lightweight · age 33 · Southpaw · 5'7" 170 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 66" 168 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
Elo rating
1497
Global Elo 1546 ±37
Rank
#44
top 49% of division
UFC record
4-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-3
Δ90d -12 · Δ1y -44
Last fight
May 9, 2026
Loss by Submission · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 40m
Avg fight time
12:32
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
2.4
Ground control
26m
Since last fight
1mo

Honest Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Jan 14, 2023 — W vs Nick Fiore Δ+29Jun 24, 2023 — W vs Loik Radzhabov Δ+33Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Roosevelt Roberts Δ+31May 11, 2024 — L vs Diego Ferreira Δ-33Oct 26, 2024 — W vs Myktybek Orolbai Δ+30Aug 2, 2025 — L vs Chris Duncan Δ-16Oct 25, 2025 — L vs Ludovit Klein Δ-16May 9, 2026 — L vs Grant Dawson Δ-12 1460148015001520154015601580 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":355.1,"elo":1481,"date":"2023-01-14","opp":"Nick Fiore","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":185.7,"y":266.8,"elo":1514,"date":"2023-06-24","opp":"Loik Radzhabov","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":269,"y":183.1,"elo":1545,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Roosevelt Roberts","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":377.2,"y":271.6,"elo":1512,"date":"2024-05-11","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":4,"x":477.1,"y":192.1,"elo":1542,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Myktybek Orolbai","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":643.5,"y":235.6,"elo":1525,"date":"2025-08-02","opp":"Chris Duncan","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":693.5,"y":277.5,"elo":1510,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Ludovit Klein","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":810,"y":310.5,"elo":1497,"date":"2026-05-09","opp":"Grant Dawson","result":"L","delta":-12}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 9, 2026 Grant Dawson L -12
Oct 25, 2025 Ludovit Klein L -16
Aug 2, 2025 Chris Duncan L -16
Oct 26, 2024 Myktybek Orolbai W +30
May 11, 2024 Diego Ferreira L -33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 495 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 15%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
2 of 4 · usually R3
1 KO/TKO 1 Sub 2 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1601
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Myktybek Orolbai
Elo 1573 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.9
+0.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 8 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1676

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Mateusz Rebecki on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.