HonestElo
← lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki

Active #41 lightweight
Elo rating
1558 ±37
LCB 1510
Rank
#41
top 40% of division
UFC record
4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -32
Last fight
Oct 25, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Jan 14, 2023 — W vs Nick Fiore Δ+29Jun 24, 2023 — W vs Loik Radzhabov Δ+33Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Roosevelt Roberts Δ+31May 11, 2024 — L vs Diego Ferreira Δ-33Oct 26, 2024 — W vs Myktybek Orolbai Δ+30Aug 2, 2025 — L vs Chris Duncan Δ-16Oct 25, 2025 — L vs Ludovit Klein Δ-16 14891525156115971633 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":177.3,"elo":1529,"date":"2023-01-14","opp":"Nick Fiore","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":159.1,"y":128.8,"elo":1562,"date":"2023-06-24","opp":"Loik Radzhabov","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":276.7,"y":82.7,"elo":1593,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Roosevelt Roberts","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":429.4,"y":131.4,"elo":1560,"date":"2024-05-11","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":4,"x":570.5,"y":87.7,"elo":1590,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Myktybek Orolbai","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":805.5,"y":111.6,"elo":1574,"date":"2025-08-02","opp":"Chris Duncan","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":134.6,"elo":1558,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Ludovit Klein","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 25, 2025 Ludovit Klein L -16
Aug 2, 2025 Chris Duncan L -16
Oct 26, 2024 Myktybek Orolbai W +30
May 11, 2024 Diego Ferreira L -33
Nov 11, 2023 Roosevelt Roberts W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.13 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.59 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.00 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
53% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
50% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1574
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.5
actual 0 vs expected