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Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega — Honest Elo matchup

lightweight
Other bouts 8
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Doha
Nov 21, 2026 · Doha, Qatar
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Corner A
Dan Hooker
#29 14-11-0
Elo 1531
VS
Corner B
Brian Ortega
#12 8-5-0
Elo 1588

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Dan Hooker 50.0%
Corner B Brian Ortega 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 7
Jiri Prochazka vs Navajo Stirling Main event · light heavyweight Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos featherweight Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov middleweight Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira heavyweight Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna bantamweight Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi flyweight Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa flyweight

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Hooker +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Ortega

Finishes 88% of wins (3 KO · 4 SUB).

Hooker

6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Ortega

8 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Sep 2026 / Aug 2025).

Hooker

Reach advantage of ~6".

Tale of the tape

14-11-0 UFC record 8-5-0
KO 7 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 4
-3 Streak -2
36 Age 35
6'0" 183 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Switch Stance Switch
1576 Global Elo 1639
1531 Elo rating 1588
Dan Hooker — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 64% of wins by KO or submission
  • 36% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Brian Ortega — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 88% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014

Dan Hooker — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1185 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
62% Head
  • Head 62%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 7%

Brian Ortega — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 742 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.82
3.84
div avg 4.56
49%
37%
div avg 51%
4.94
6.38
div avg 3.65
49%
49%
div avg 53%
0.67
0.93
div avg 1.98
33%
25%
div avg 38%
77%
55%
div avg 72%
0.55
0.93
div avg 0.69
3
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Dan Hooker
64% finish rate
KO 7 · Sub 2
can finish?
Brian Ortega
finished 40%
2 of 5 losses
Brian Ortega
88% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 4
can finish?
Dan Hooker
finished 64%
7 of 11 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Brian Ortega has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1680 vs 1613, 4 quality wins to 4.

Dan Hooker red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1613
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 14 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mateusz Gamrot
Elo 1656 at fight time
Expected wins
12.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 25 fights
1500
1500
Notable wins
Mateusz Gamrot 1656 James Vick 1635 Paul Felder 1622 Jim Miller 1601
Brian Ortega blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1680
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Frankie Edgar
Elo 1703 at fight time
Expected wins
6.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1476
1715
Notable wins
Frankie Edgar 1703 Yair Rodriguez 1676 Cub Swanson 1652 Chan Sung Jung 1632

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    Yair Rodriguez
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Submission · R3
    Oct 3, 2015
    Feb 24, 2024
  • L
    Yair Rodriguez
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    KO/TKO · R1
    Oct 3, 2015
    Jul 16, 2022
Corner A recent form
Dan Hooker
Corner B recent form
Brian Ortega
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Dan Hooker & Brian Ortega on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.