HonestElo
← featherweight

Arnold Allen

Active #5 featherweight · Southpaw · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1664 ±34
LCB 1621
Rank
#5
top 4% of division
UFC record
11-3-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 · Dec 7
Streak
-1
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Jan 24, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Jun 20, 2015 — W vs Alan Omer Δ+30Feb 27, 2016 — W vs Yaotzin Meza Δ+24Mar 18, 2017 — W vs Makwan Amirkhani Δ+31May 27, 2018 — W vs Mads Burnell Δ+25Mar 16, 2019 — W vs Jordan Rinaldi Δ+21Jul 6, 2019 — W vs Gilbert Melendez Δ+8Jan 25, 2020 — W vs Nik Lentz Δ+15Apr 10, 2021 — W vs Sodiq Yusuff Δ+14Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Dan Hooker Δ+15Oct 29, 2022 — W vs Calvin Kattar Δ+15Apr 15, 2023 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-16Jan 20, 2024 — L vs Movsar Evloev Δ-17Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Giga Chikadze Δ+16Jan 24, 2026 — L vs Jean Silva Δ-18 14901553161516771739 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":201.9,"elo":1530,"date":"2015-06-20","opp":"Alan Omer","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":79.5,"y":181.3,"elo":1555,"date":"2016-02-27","opp":"Yaotzin Meza","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":164.2,"y":154.6,"elo":1586,"date":"2017-03-18","opp":"Makwan Amirkhani","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":259.9,"y":133,"elo":1611,"date":"2018-05-27","opp":"Mads Burnell","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":4,"x":324.4,"y":114.7,"elo":1633,"date":"2019-03-16","opp":"Jordan Rinaldi","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":5,"x":349.1,"y":108,"elo":1641,"date":"2019-07-06","opp":"Gilbert Melendez","result":"W","delta":8},{"i":6,"x":393.8,"y":95.5,"elo":1655,"date":"2020-01-25","opp":"Nik Lentz","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":490.8,"y":83.1,"elo":1670,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Sodiq Yusuff","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":566.3,"y":70.7,"elo":1684,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Dan Hooker","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":615.6,"y":58.1,"elo":1699,"date":"2022-10-29","opp":"Calvin Kattar","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":652.6,"y":71.4,"elo":1683,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":714.2,"y":85.6,"elo":1667,"date":"2024-01-20","opp":"Movsar Evloev","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":12,"x":755.8,"y":72.3,"elo":1682,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Giga Chikadze","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":87.7,"elo":1664,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Jean Silva","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2026 Jean Silva L -18
Jul 27, 2024 Giga Chikadze W +16
Jan 20, 2024 Movsar Evloev L -17
Apr 15, 2023 Max Holloway L -16
Oct 29, 2022 Calvin Kattar W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.25 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.85 avg 2.98
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.80 avg 1.41
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
48% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
72% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.29 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
36%
4 / 11
Finish rate
KO
2
18% of wins
SUB
2
18% of wins
DEC
7
64% of wins
KO: 2 (18%) 2 Sub: 2 (18%) 2 Dec: 7 (64%) 7
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
1 25%
R2
1 25%
R3
2 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1658
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.0
actual +3 vs expected