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Rafael Natal

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1527 ±35
LCB 1482
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-7-1
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 7
Streak
-3
Δ90d +5 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Jul 22, 2017
L by KO

Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
Sep 15, 2010 — L vs Rich Attonito Δ-26Dec 11, 2010 — D vs Jesse Bongfeldt Δ+2Aug 6, 2011 — W vs Paul Bradley Δ+31Feb 4, 2012 — W vs Michael Kuiper Δ+28Jul 11, 2012 — L vs Andrew Craig Δ-33Jan 26, 2013 — W vs Sean Spencer Δ+18May 18, 2013 — W vs Joao Zeferino Δ+15Sep 4, 2013 — W vs Tor Troeng Δ+16Nov 6, 2013 — L vs Tim Kennedy Δ-20May 10, 2014 — L vs Ed Herman Δ-15Sep 5, 2014 — W vs Chris Camozzi Δ+16Jan 31, 2015 — W vs Tom Watson Δ+14May 23, 2015 — W vs Uriah Hall Δ+16Jan 30, 2016 — W vs Kevin Casey Δ+15Apr 23, 2016 — L vs Robert Whittaker Δ-15Nov 12, 2016 — L vs Tim Boetsch Δ-20Jul 22, 2017 — L vs Eryk Anders Δ-21 14341480152615721618 201220142016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":189.8,"elo":1474,"date":"2010-09-15","opp":"Rich Attonito","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":53.6,"y":187.3,"elo":1476,"date":"2010-12-11","opp":"Jesse Bongfeldt","result":"D","delta":2},{"i":2,"x":134.7,"y":151.7,"elo":1507,"date":"2011-08-06","opp":"Paul Bradley","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":196.6,"y":119.1,"elo":1535,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Michael Kuiper","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":250.5,"y":157.6,"elo":1502,"date":"2012-07-11","opp":"Andrew Craig","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":5,"x":318.2,"y":136.5,"elo":1520,"date":"2013-01-26","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":356.4,"y":119,"elo":1535,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Joao Zeferino","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":393.5,"y":100.7,"elo":1551,"date":"2013-09-04","opp":"Tor Troeng","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":414.9,"y":123.3,"elo":1532,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"Tim Kennedy","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":477.9,"y":140.3,"elo":1517,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Ed Herman","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":10,"x":518.1,"y":122.1,"elo":1533,"date":"2014-09-05","opp":"Chris Camozzi","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":568.5,"y":105.6,"elo":1547,"date":"2015-01-31","opp":"Tom Watson","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":12,"x":606.6,"y":87.6,"elo":1562,"date":"2015-05-23","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":692.5,"y":70.2,"elo":1578,"date":"2016-01-30","opp":"Kevin Casey","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":14,"x":721.1,"y":87.9,"elo":1562,"date":"2016-04-23","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":790.2,"y":110.5,"elo":1543,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Tim Boetsch","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":16,"x":876,"y":134.3,"elo":1522,"date":"2017-07-22","opp":"Eryk Anders","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 22, 2017 Eryk Anders L -21
Nov 12, 2016 Tim Boetsch L -20
Apr 23, 2016 Robert Whittaker L -15
Jan 30, 2016 Kevin Casey W +15
May 23, 2015 Uriah Hall W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.98 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.38 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.45 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
77% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.48 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
22%
2 / 9
Finish rate
KO
1
11% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
7
78% of wins
KO: 1 (11%) 1 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 7 (78%) 7
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
R3
2 100%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1534
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.7
actual 0 vs expected