HonestElo
← middleweight

Rafael Natal "Sapo"

Inactive · age 43 · Orthodox · 6'0" 183 cm · 185 lb 84 kg · reach 77" 196 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Elo rating
1479
Global Elo 1527 ±37
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-7-1
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 7
Streak
-3
Δ90d +5 · Δ1y +5
Last fight
Jul 22, 2017
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 32m
Avg fight time
12:27
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
2.5
Ground control
54m
Since last fight
8y 11mo

Honest Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
Sep 15, 2010 — L vs Rich Attonito Δ-26Dec 11, 2010 — D vs Jesse Bongfeldt Δ+2Aug 6, 2011 — W vs Paul Bradley Δ+31Feb 4, 2012 — W vs Michael Kuiper Δ+28Jul 11, 2012 — L vs Andrew Craig Δ-33Jan 26, 2013 — W vs Sean Spencer Δ+18May 18, 2013 — W vs Joao Zeferino Δ+15Sep 4, 2013 — W vs Tor Troeng Δ+16Nov 6, 2013 — L vs Tim Kennedy Δ-20May 10, 2014 — L vs Ed Herman Δ-15Sep 5, 2014 — W vs Chris Camozzi Δ+16Jan 31, 2015 — W vs Tom Watson Δ+14May 23, 2015 — W vs Uriah Hall Δ+16Jan 30, 2016 — W vs Kevin Casey Δ+15Apr 23, 2016 — L vs Robert Whittaker Δ-15Nov 12, 2016 — L vs Tim Boetsch Δ-20Jul 22, 2017 — L vs Eryk Anders Δ-21 14001425145014751500152515501575 201220142016 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":353.5,"elo":1431,"date":"2010-09-15","opp":"Rich Attonito","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":115,"y":349.5,"elo":1433,"date":"2010-12-11","opp":"Jesse Bongfeldt","result":"D","delta":2},{"i":2,"x":183.5,"y":293.2,"elo":1464,"date":"2011-08-06","opp":"Paul Bradley","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":235.9,"y":241.6,"elo":1492,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Michael Kuiper","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":281.4,"y":302.5,"elo":1459,"date":"2012-07-11","opp":"Andrew Craig","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":5,"x":338.6,"y":269,"elo":1477,"date":"2013-01-26","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":370.9,"y":241.4,"elo":1492,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Joao Zeferino","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":402.2,"y":212.3,"elo":1508,"date":"2013-09-04","opp":"Tor Troeng","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":420.4,"y":248.2,"elo":1489,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"Tim Kennedy","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":473.6,"y":275.1,"elo":1474,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Ed Herman","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":10,"x":507.6,"y":246.3,"elo":1490,"date":"2014-09-05","opp":"Chris Camozzi","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":550.1,"y":220.2,"elo":1504,"date":"2015-01-31","opp":"Tom Watson","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":12,"x":582.4,"y":191.7,"elo":1519,"date":"2015-05-23","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":654.9,"y":164.1,"elo":1535,"date":"2016-01-30","opp":"Kevin Casey","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":14,"x":679.1,"y":192,"elo":1519,"date":"2016-04-23","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":737.5,"y":227.9,"elo":1500,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Tim Boetsch","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":16,"x":810,"y":265.5,"elo":1479,"date":"2017-07-22","opp":"Eryk Anders","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 22, 2017 Eryk Anders L -21
Nov 12, 2016 Tim Boetsch L -20
Apr 23, 2016 Robert Whittaker L -15
Jan 30, 2016 Kevin Casey W +15
May 23, 2015 Uriah Hall W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
22%
2 / 9
Finish rate
KO
1
11% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
7
78% of wins
KO: 1 (11%) 1 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 7 (78%) 7
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
R3
2 100%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 656 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
58% Head
  • Head 58%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 28%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
66% Distance
  • Distance 66%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 22%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
57%
of losses by finish
4 of 7 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1534
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Uriah Hall
Elo 1538 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
8.7
+0.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 17 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1533
1500

Top middleweight

See full rankings →
Dricus Du Plessis
#1 · Elo 1690
Khamzat Chimaev
#2 · Elo 1676
Sean Strickland C
#3 · Elo 1657
Brendan Allen
#4 · Elo 1654
Nassourdine Imavov
#5 · Elo 1648
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rafael Natal on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.