HonestElo
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Caio Machado

Active #43 light heavyweight
Elo rating
1424 ±20
LCB 1398
Rank
#43
top 91% of division
UFC record
0-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d +7 · Δ1y +7
Last fight
Nov 2, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Mick Parkin Δ-26Apr 27, 2024 — L vs Don'Tale Mayes Δ-27Nov 2, 2024 — L vs Brendson Ribeiro Δ-29 13771411144514801514 2024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":86,"elo":1474,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Mick Parkin","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":415.9,"y":128.7,"elo":1446,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Don'Tale Mayes","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":2,"x":876,"y":174,"elo":1417,"date":"2024-11-02","opp":"Brendson Ribeiro","result":"L","delta":-29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 2, 2024 Brendson Ribeiro L -29
Apr 27, 2024 Don'Tale Mayes L -27
Nov 18, 2023 Mick Parkin L -26

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.07 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.44 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
70% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 0
Finish rate
KO
0
—
SUB
0
—
DEC
0
—
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1487
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.4
actual -1 vs expected