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Paulo Costa "The Eraser"

Active #5 light heavyweight · age 35 · Orthodox · 6'1" 185 cm · 185 lb 84 kg · reach 72" 183 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1592
Global Elo 1644 ±40
Rank
#5
top 10% of division
UFC record
8-4-0
KO 5 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+2
Δ90d +21 · Δ1y +35
Last fight
Apr 11, 2026
Win by KO · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 32m
Avg fight time
12:39
Title fights
0-1
Bonuses
5
Fights per year
1.3
Since last fight
2mo

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Mar 11, 2017 — W vs Garreth McLellan Δ+28Jun 3, 2017 — W vs Oluwale Bamgbose Δ+28Nov 4, 2017 — W vs Johny Hendricks Δ+39Jul 7, 2018 — W vs Uriah Hall Δ+28Aug 17, 2019 — W vs Yoel Romero Δ+34Sep 26, 2020 — L vs Israel Adesanya Δ-18Oct 23, 2021 — L vs Marvin Vettori Δ-19Aug 20, 2022 — W vs Luke Rockhold Δ+16Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Robert Whittaker Δ-14Jun 1, 2024 — L vs Sean Strickland Δ-14Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Roman Kopylov Δ+15Apr 11, 2026 — W vs Azamat Murzakanov Δ+21 14501500155016001650 2019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":367.8,"elo":1476,"date":"2017-03-11","opp":"Garreth McLellan","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":108.2,"y":322.5,"elo":1505,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Oluwale Bamgbose","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":141.6,"y":260.9,"elo":1543,"date":"2017-11-04","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":3,"x":194.8,"y":216.4,"elo":1571,"date":"2018-07-07","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":282.9,"y":161.4,"elo":1605,"date":"2019-08-17","opp":"Yoel Romero","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":371,"y":190.6,"elo":1587,"date":"2020-09-26","opp":"Israel Adesanya","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":456.1,"y":220.4,"elo":1569,"date":"2021-10-23","opp":"Marvin Vettori","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":521.4,"y":194.6,"elo":1585,"date":"2022-08-20","opp":"Luke Rockhold","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":639.9,"y":217.2,"elo":1571,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":662.7,"y":239.6,"elo":1557,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":752.3,"y":215.8,"elo":1571,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":182.8,"elo":1592,"date":"2026-04-11","opp":"Azamat Murzakanov","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 11, 2026 Azamat Murzakanov W +21
Jul 19, 2025 Roman Kopylov W +15
Jun 1, 2024 Sean Strickland L -14
Feb 17, 2024 Robert Whittaker L -14
Aug 20, 2022 Luke Rockhold W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
63%
5 / 8
Finish rate
KO
5
63% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
38% of wins
KO: 5 (63%) 5 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (38%) 3
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
1 20%
R2
3 60%
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 934 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
45% Head
  • Head 45%
  • Body 41%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 6%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
25%
of losses by finish
1 of 4
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1643
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
4
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Yoel Romero
Elo 1692 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.9
+2.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1450
1664
Notable wins
Yoel Romero 1692 Azamat Murzakanov 1664 Luke Rockhold 1621 Johny Hendricks 1613

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Dominick Reyes
#6 · Elo 1583
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Paulo Costa on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.