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Paulo Costa

Active #14 middleweight · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1623 ±35
LCB 1578
Rank
#14
top 16% of division
UFC record
7-4-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +15
Last fight
Jul 19, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Mar 11, 2017 — W vs Garreth McLellan Δ+28Jun 3, 2017 — W vs Oluwale Bamgbose Δ+28Nov 4, 2017 — W vs Johny Hendricks Δ+39Jul 7, 2018 — W vs Uriah Hall Δ+28Aug 17, 2019 — W vs Yoel Romero Δ+34Sep 26, 2020 — L vs Israel Adesanya Δ-18Oct 23, 2021 — L vs Marvin Vettori Δ-19Aug 20, 2022 — W vs Luke Rockhold Δ+16Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Robert Whittaker Δ-14Jun 1, 2024 — L vs Sean Strickland Δ-14Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Roman Kopylov Δ+15 14881541159316451697 2019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":195.4,"elo":1528,"date":"2017-03-11","opp":"Garreth McLellan","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":47.4,"y":166.7,"elo":1557,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Oluwale Bamgbose","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":90.4,"y":127.7,"elo":1595,"date":"2017-11-04","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":3,"x":158.8,"y":99.5,"elo":1623,"date":"2018-07-07","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":272.2,"y":64.6,"elo":1657,"date":"2019-08-17","opp":"Yoel Romero","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":385.5,"y":83.1,"elo":1639,"date":"2020-09-26","opp":"Israel Adesanya","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":494.9,"y":102,"elo":1621,"date":"2021-10-23","opp":"Marvin Vettori","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":579,"y":85.7,"elo":1637,"date":"2022-08-20","opp":"Luke Rockhold","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":731.4,"y":100,"elo":1623,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":760.7,"y":114.2,"elo":1609,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":99.1,"elo":1623,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 19, 2025 Roman Kopylov W +15
Jun 1, 2024 Sean Strickland L -14
Feb 17, 2024 Robert Whittaker L -14
Aug 20, 2022 Luke Rockhold W +16
Oct 23, 2021 Marvin Vettori L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.67 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
59% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.61 avg 2.99
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.29 avg 1.45
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
80% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.49
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
4
57% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 4 (57%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
1 25%
R2
3 75%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1627
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.4
actual +2 vs expected