HonestElo
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Johnny Walker

Active #17 light heavyweight · Orthodox · 198 cm · reach 208 cm
Elo rating
1576 ±38
LCB 1527
Rank
#17
top 35% of division
UFC record
8-6-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +21
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Nov 17, 2018 — W vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ+37Feb 2, 2019 — W vs Justin Ledet Δ+34Mar 2, 2019 — W vs Misha Cirkunov Δ+34Nov 2, 2019 — L vs Corey Anderson Δ-33Mar 14, 2020 — L vs Nikita Krylov Δ-30Sep 19, 2020 — W vs Ryan Spann Δ+22Oct 2, 2021 — L vs Thiago Santos Δ-14Feb 19, 2022 — L vs Jamahal Hill Δ-17Sep 10, 2022 — W vs Ion Cutelaba Δ+18Jan 21, 2023 — W vs Paul Craig Δ+19May 13, 2023 — W vs Anthony Smith Δ+18Jan 13, 2024 — L vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ-14Jun 22, 2024 — L vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ-19Aug 23, 2025 — W vs Zhang Mingyang Δ+21 14941532157016081646 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":175.6,"elo":1537,"date":"2018-11-17","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":1,"x":50.5,"y":127.6,"elo":1572,"date":"2019-02-02","opp":"Justin Ledet","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":60.2,"y":79.8,"elo":1606,"date":"2019-03-02","opp":"Misha Cirkunov","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":144.7,"y":125.7,"elo":1573,"date":"2019-11-02","opp":"Corey Anderson","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":4,"x":190.5,"y":167.1,"elo":1543,"date":"2020-03-14","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":255.7,"y":136,"elo":1566,"date":"2020-09-19","opp":"Ryan Spann","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":6,"x":386,"y":155.8,"elo":1551,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Thiago Santos","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":7,"x":434.3,"y":180.2,"elo":1534,"date":"2022-02-19","opp":"Jamahal Hill","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":504.3,"y":155.5,"elo":1552,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Ion Cutelaba","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":550.2,"y":129.3,"elo":1570,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Paul Craig","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":588.8,"y":103.9,"elo":1589,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Anthony Smith","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":673.3,"y":123.9,"elo":1574,"date":"2024-01-13","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":12,"x":728.8,"y":150.6,"elo":1555,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":121.8,"elo":1576,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Zhang Mingyang","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Zhang Mingyang W +21
Jun 22, 2024 Volkan Oezdemir L -19
Jan 13, 2024 Magomed Ankalaev L -14
May 13, 2023 Anthony Smith W +18
Jan 21, 2023 Paul Craig W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.88 avg 3.69
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.24 avg 3.42
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.25 avg 0.74
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
53% avg 76%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.38 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
7 / 8
Finish rate
KO
6
75% of wins
SUB
1
13% of wins
DEC
1
13% of wins
KO: 6 (75%) 6 Sub: 1 (13%) 1 Dec: 1 (13%) 1
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
6 86%
R2
1 14%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1601
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.5
actual +1 vs expected