HonestElo
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Ryan Spann

Active #22 heavyweight · Orthodox · 196 cm · reach 201 cm
Elo rating
1569 ±39
LCB 1518
Rank
#22
top 41% of division
UFC record
9-6-0
KO 3 · Sub 4 · Dec 2
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +12
Last fight
Jul 19, 2025
W by Submission

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Sep 22, 2018 — W vs Luis Henrique Δ+26May 11, 2019 — W vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ+38Oct 12, 2019 — W vs Devin Clark Δ+29May 9, 2020 — W vs Sam Alvey Δ+25Sep 19, 2020 — L vs Johnny Walker Δ-40Mar 13, 2021 — W vs Misha Cirkunov Δ+19Sep 18, 2021 — L vs Anthony Smith Δ-17May 14, 2022 — W vs Ion Cutelaba Δ+16Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Dominick Reyes Δ+19Mar 11, 2023 — L vs Nikita Krylov Δ-20Aug 26, 2023 — L vs Anthony Smith Δ-16Apr 27, 2024 — L vs Bogdan Guskov Δ-22Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Ovince Saint Preux Δ+19Mar 15, 2025 — L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Δ-18Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Lukasz Brzeski Δ+12 14861529157216151658 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":186.6,"elo":1526,"date":"2018-09-22","opp":"Luis Henrique","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":1,"x":103,"y":139.5,"elo":1565,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":2,"x":155.6,"y":103.9,"elo":1593,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Devin Clark","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":227.4,"y":73.4,"elo":1618,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Sam Alvey","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":4,"x":272.9,"y":123,"elo":1578,"date":"2020-09-19","opp":"Johnny Walker","result":"L","delta":-40},{"i":5,"x":332.7,"y":99.9,"elo":1597,"date":"2021-03-13","opp":"Misha Cirkunov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":397.3,"y":121.1,"elo":1579,"date":"2021-09-18","opp":"Anthony Smith","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":478.7,"y":101.2,"elo":1596,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Ion Cutelaba","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":540.9,"y":77.7,"elo":1615,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Dominick Reyes","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":581.6,"y":102.6,"elo":1594,"date":"2023-03-11","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":639.1,"y":122.1,"elo":1579,"date":"2023-08-26","opp":"Anthony Smith","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":722.8,"y":149.6,"elo":1556,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Bogdan Guskov","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":12,"x":777.9,"y":126.5,"elo":1575,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Ovince Saint Preux","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":832.9,"y":148.5,"elo":1557,"date":"2025-03-15","opp":"Waldo Cortes Acosta","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":134.2,"elo":1569,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Lukasz Brzeski","result":"W","delta":12}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 19, 2025 Lukasz Brzeski W +12
Mar 15, 2025 Waldo Cortes Acosta L -18
Oct 5, 2024 Ovince Saint Preux W +19
Apr 27, 2024 Bogdan Guskov L -22
Aug 26, 2023 Anthony Smith L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.41 avg 3.10
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.10 avg 2.77
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
44% avg 52%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.00 avg 1.29
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
50% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.25 avg 0.28
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
78%
7 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
4
44% of wins
DEC
2
22% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 4 (44%) 4 Dec: 2 (22%) 2
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
6 86%
R2
1 14%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1535
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.0
actual +1 vs expected