HonestElo
← light heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay

Active #33 light heavyweight · age 29 · Southpaw · 6'2" 188 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1410
Global Elo 1467 ±44
Rank
#33
top 82% of division
UFC record
1-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
24m
Avg fight time
8:04
Bonuses
1
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
Mar 15, 2025 — L vs Brendson Ribeiro Δ-36Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Uran Satybaldiev Δ-32Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Rafael Tobias Δ+34 13501370139014101430 2026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":180,"elo":1408,"date":"2025-03-15","opp":"Brendson Ribeiro","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":1,"x":414.7,"y":307.2,"elo":1376,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Uran Satybaldiev","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":2,"x":810,"y":170,"elo":1410,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Rafael Tobias","result":"W","delta":34}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Rafael Tobias W +34
Aug 23, 2025 Uran Satybaldiev L -32
Mar 15, 2025 Brendson Ribeiro L -36

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 118 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
40% Body
  • Head 33%
  • Body 40%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
2 of 2
0 KO/TKO 2 Sub 0 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1482
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Rafael Tobias
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
1.4
−0.4 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 3 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1470
1500

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Paulo Costa
#5 · Elo 1592
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Diyar Nurgozhay on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.