HonestElo
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Ed Herman

Inactive · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1534 ±35
LCB 1489
Rank
—
—
UFC record
13-12-0
KO 4 · Sub 5 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Apr 15, 2023
L by KO

Elo history

25 fights · tap & drag
Jun 24, 2006 — L vs Kendall Grove Δ-36Oct 10, 2006 — L vs Jason MacDonald Δ-30Jan 25, 2007 — W vs Chris Price Δ+37Jun 16, 2007 — W vs Scott Smith Δ+33Nov 17, 2007 — W vs Joe Doerksen Δ+29Apr 19, 2008 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-18Sep 17, 2008 — L vs Alan Belcher Δ-16Apr 18, 2009 — W vs David Loiseau Δ+19Aug 29, 2009 — L vs Aaron Simpson Δ-17Jun 4, 2011 — W vs Tim Credeur Δ+22Aug 14, 2011 — W vs Kyle Noke Δ+22Feb 4, 2012 — W vs Clifford Starks Δ+18Jul 27, 2013 — W vs Trevor Smith Δ+13Nov 16, 2013 — L vs Thales Leites Δ-15May 10, 2014 — W vs Rafael Natal Δ+15Jan 31, 2015 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-19Jan 17, 2016 — W vs Tim Boetsch Δ+18Jul 30, 2016 — L vs Nikita Krylov Δ-18Jul 7, 2017 — L vs CB Dollaway Δ-17Oct 27, 2018 — L vs Gian Villante Δ-17May 18, 2019 — W vs Patrick Cummins Δ+19Nov 9, 2019 — W vs Khadis Ibragimov Δ+13Sep 12, 2020 — W vs Mike Rodriguez Δ+16Aug 7, 2021 — L vs Alonzo Menifield Δ-17Apr 15, 2023 — L vs Zak Cummings Δ-15 13941449150415601615 20092012201520182021 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":168.9,"elo":1464,"date":"2006-06-24","opp":"Kendall Grove","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":1,"x":39,"y":197.5,"elo":1434,"date":"2006-10-10","opp":"Jason MacDonald","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":2,"x":53.8,"y":162.4,"elo":1471,"date":"2007-01-25","opp":"Chris Price","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":3,"x":73.5,"y":130.9,"elo":1504,"date":"2007-06-16","opp":"Scott Smith","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":94.9,"y":103.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2007-11-17","opp":"Joe Doerksen","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":116.3,"y":121.2,"elo":1514,"date":"2008-04-19","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":137.2,"y":136.2,"elo":1498,"date":"2008-09-17","opp":"Alan Belcher","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":166.8,"y":117.9,"elo":1517,"date":"2009-04-18","opp":"David Loiseau","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":185.3,"y":134.8,"elo":1500,"date":"2009-08-29","opp":"Aaron Simpson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":274.6,"y":113.7,"elo":1521,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Tim Credeur","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":10,"x":284.5,"y":92.1,"elo":1544,"date":"2011-08-14","opp":"Kyle Noke","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":11,"x":308.6,"y":75.2,"elo":1561,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Clifford Starks","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":12,"x":383.5,"y":62.5,"elo":1575,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Trevor Smith","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":13,"x":399,"y":77.3,"elo":1559,"date":"2013-11-16","opp":"Thales Leites","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":423.3,"y":63.1,"elo":1574,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Rafael Natal","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":15,"x":460.2,"y":81.7,"elo":1555,"date":"2015-01-31","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":16,"x":508.9,"y":64.9,"elo":1572,"date":"2016-01-17","opp":"Tim Boetsch","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":17,"x":536,"y":82.5,"elo":1554,"date":"2016-07-30","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":18,"x":583.4,"y":99.2,"elo":1537,"date":"2017-07-07","opp":"CB Dollaway","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":19,"x":649.6,"y":115.5,"elo":1520,"date":"2018-10-27","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":20,"x":677.8,"y":97.7,"elo":1538,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Patrick Cummins","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":21,"x":702.1,"y":85.5,"elo":1551,"date":"2019-11-09","opp":"Khadis Ibragimov","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":22,"x":744.8,"y":70,"elo":1567,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Mike Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":23,"x":790.5,"y":86.8,"elo":1549,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Alonzo Menifield","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":24,"x":876,"y":101.8,"elo":1534,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Zak Cummings","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 15, 2023 Zak Cummings L -15
Aug 7, 2021 Alonzo Menifield L -17
Sep 12, 2020 Mike Rodriguez W +16
Nov 9, 2019 Khadis Ibragimov W +13
May 18, 2019 Patrick Cummins W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.91 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
49% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.22 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
43% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.74 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
47% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
61% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.89 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
69%
9 / 13
Finish rate
KO
4
31% of wins
SUB
5
38% of wins
DEC
4
31% of wins
KO: 4 (31%) 4 Sub: 5 (38%) 5 Dec: 4 (31%) 4
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
4 44%
R2
3 33%
R3
2 22%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1527
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.5
actual 0 vs expected