HonestElo
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Carlos Ulberg C

Active #3 light heavyweight · Orthodox · 193 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1675 ±20
LCB 1649
Rank
#3
top 4% of division
UFC record
9-1-0
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
+9
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Sep 27, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Δ-33Feb 12, 2022 — W vs Fabio Cherant Δ+26Jun 25, 2022 — W vs Tafon Nchukwi Δ+33Nov 12, 2022 — W vs Nicolae Negumereanu Δ+39May 13, 2023 — W vs Ihor Potieria Δ+28Sep 9, 2023 — W vs Da Woon Jung Δ+18May 11, 2024 — W vs Alonzo Menifield Δ+18Nov 23, 2024 — W vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ+14Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Jan Blachowicz Δ+16Sep 27, 2025 — W vs Dominick Reyes Δ+17 14271499157116431715 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":206.6,"elo":1467,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Kennedy Nzechukwu","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":1,"x":199.4,"y":187.2,"elo":1493,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Fabio Cherant","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":2,"x":267.4,"y":163.2,"elo":1526,"date":"2022-06-25","opp":"Tafon Nchukwi","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":339,"y":134.9,"elo":1564,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Nicolae Negumereanu","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":4,"x":432.1,"y":114,"elo":1593,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Ihor Potieria","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":493,"y":101.2,"elo":1610,"date":"2023-09-09","opp":"Da Woon Jung","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":618.3,"y":87.9,"elo":1628,"date":"2024-05-11","opp":"Alonzo Menifield","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":718.5,"y":77.9,"elo":1642,"date":"2024-11-23","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":779.3,"y":66.2,"elo":1658,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Jan Blachowicz","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":53.4,"elo":1675,"date":"2025-09-27","opp":"Dominick Reyes","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 27, 2025 Dominick Reyes W +17
Mar 22, 2025 Jan Blachowicz W +16
Nov 23, 2024 Volkan Oezdemir W +14
May 11, 2024 Alonzo Menifield W +18
Sep 9, 2023 Da Woon Jung W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.54 avg 3.60
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.41 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 49%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.47 avg 0.73
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
60% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
86% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.16 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
6 / 9
Finish rate
KO
5
56% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
3
33% of wins
KO: 5 (56%) 5 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 3 (33%) 3
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
5 83%
R2
R3
1 17%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1607
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.2
actual +4 vs expected