HonestElo
← welterweight

Stephen Thompson

Active #38 welterweight · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1587 ±39
LCB 1536
Rank
#38
top 41% of division
UFC record
12-9-1
KO 6 · Sub 0 · Dec 6
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -16
Last fight
Jul 12, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

22 fights · tap & drag
Feb 4, 2012 — W vs Dan Stittgen Δ+33Apr 21, 2012 — L vs Matt Brown Δ-28May 25, 2013 — W vs Nah-Shon Burrell Δ+31Sep 21, 2013 — W vs Chris Clements Δ+32Feb 22, 2014 — W vs Robert Whittaker Δ+30Sep 27, 2014 — W vs Patrick Cote Δ+11Jul 12, 2015 — W vs Jake Ellenberger Δ+18Feb 6, 2016 — W vs Johny Hendricks Δ+21Jun 18, 2016 — W vs Rory MacDonald Δ+15Nov 12, 2016 — D vs Tyron Woodley Δ-2Mar 4, 2017 — L vs Tyron Woodley Δ-22Nov 4, 2017 — W vs Jorge Masvidal Δ+15May 27, 2018 — L vs Darren Till Δ-17Mar 23, 2019 — L vs Anthony Pettis Δ-20Nov 2, 2019 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+18Dec 19, 2020 — W vs Geoff Neal Δ+17Jul 10, 2021 — L vs Gilbert Burns Δ-16Dec 18, 2021 — L vs Belal Muhammad Δ-16Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Kevin Holland Δ+17Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Δ-16Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Joaquin Buckley Δ-19Jul 12, 2025 — L vs Gabriel Bonfim Δ-16 14651525158416441704 2015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":175.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Dan Stittgen","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":37.4,"y":200.4,"elo":1505,"date":"2012-04-21","opp":"Matt Brown","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":106.6,"y":173.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2013-05-25","opp":"Nah-Shon Burrell","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":127.3,"y":144.7,"elo":1568,"date":"2013-09-21","opp":"Chris Clements","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":154,"y":117.7,"elo":1598,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":191.7,"y":108.2,"elo":1609,"date":"2014-09-27","opp":"Patrick Cote","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":6,"x":241.7,"y":92,"elo":1627,"date":"2015-07-12","opp":"Jake Ellenberger","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":278,"y":73.3,"elo":1648,"date":"2016-02-06","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":301.1,"y":59.6,"elo":1664,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Rory MacDonald","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":326.6,"y":61.3,"elo":1662,"date":"2016-11-12","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"D","delta":-2},{"i":10,"x":346.1,"y":80.6,"elo":1640,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":11,"x":388.6,"y":67.2,"elo":1655,"date":"2017-11-04","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":12,"x":424,"y":82.6,"elo":1638,"date":"2018-05-27","opp":"Darren Till","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":13,"x":476.1,"y":100.2,"elo":1618,"date":"2019-03-23","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":14,"x":515,"y":84,"elo":1636,"date":"2019-11-02","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":15,"x":586.7,"y":69.3,"elo":1653,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":16,"x":622,"y":83.2,"elo":1637,"date":"2021-07-10","opp":"Gilbert Burns","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":17,"x":649.9,"y":97.5,"elo":1621,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":18,"x":710.7,"y":82.2,"elo":1638,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":19,"x":776.3,"y":96.2,"elo":1622,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Shavkat Rakhmonov","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":20,"x":827.4,"y":113.4,"elo":1603,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Joaquin Buckley","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":21,"x":876,"y":127.5,"elo":1587,"date":"2025-07-12","opp":"Gabriel Bonfim","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 12, 2025 Gabriel Bonfim L -16
Oct 5, 2024 Joaquin Buckley L -19
Dec 16, 2023 Shavkat Rakhmonov L -16
Dec 3, 2022 Kevin Holland W +17
Dec 18, 2021 Belal Muhammad L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.92 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.91 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.23 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
63% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
6 / 12
Finish rate
KO
6
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
6
50% of wins
KO: 6 (50%) 6 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 6 (50%) 6
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
4 67%
R2
1 17%
R3
R4
1 17%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1627
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
11.2
actual +1 vs expected