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Modestas Bukauskas "The Baltic Gladiator"

Active #22 light heavyweight · age 32 · Switch · 6'3" 191 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 78" 198 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1510
Global Elo 1548 ±29
Rank
#22
top 54% of division
UFC record
8-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
+1
Δ90d +14 · Δ1y +15
Last fight
May 16, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 11m
Avg fight time
10:04
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
1mo

Honest Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jul 15, 2020 — W vs Andreas Michailidis Δ+33Oct 17, 2020 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-29Mar 27, 2021 — L vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ-29Sep 4, 2021 — L vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ-31Feb 11, 2023 — W vs Tyson Pedro Δ+37Jun 17, 2023 — W vs Zac Pauga Δ+17Nov 4, 2023 — L vs Vitor Petrino Δ-15Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Marcin Prachnio Δ+19Feb 22, 2025 — W vs Rafael Cerqueira Δ+17May 10, 2025 — W vs Ion Cutelaba Δ+17Sep 6, 2025 — W vs Paul Craig Δ+18Jan 24, 2026 — L vs Nikita Krylov Δ-18May 16, 2026 — W vs Christian Edwards Δ+14 13751400142514501475150015251550 202120222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":190.4,"elo":1495,"date":"2020-07-15","opp":"Andreas Michailidis","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":121.8,"y":244.3,"elo":1466,"date":"2020-10-17","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":176.2,"y":297,"elo":1437,"date":"2021-03-27","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":230.6,"y":353.5,"elo":1406,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":407.9,"y":286.4,"elo":1443,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Tyson Pedro","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":450.5,"y":256,"elo":1459,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Zac Pauga","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":497.8,"y":284,"elo":1444,"date":"2023-11-04","opp":"Vitor Petrino","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":587.7,"y":250.2,"elo":1462,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Marcin Prachnio","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":658.6,"y":219.5,"elo":1479,"date":"2025-02-22","opp":"Rafael Cerqueira","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":684.7,"y":189.1,"elo":1496,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Ion Cutelaba","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":724.9,"y":156.6,"elo":1514,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Paul Craig","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":772.2,"y":188.9,"elo":1496,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":12,"x":810,"y":162.4,"elo":1510,"date":"2026-05-16","opp":"Christian Edwards","result":"W","delta":14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 16, 2026 Christian Edwards W +14
Jan 24, 2026 Nikita Krylov L -18
Sep 6, 2025 Paul Craig W +18
May 10, 2025 Ion Cutelaba W +17
Feb 22, 2025 Rafael Cerqueira W +17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
4 / 8
Finish rate
KO
3
38% of wins
SUB
1
13% of wins
DEC
4
50% of wins
KO: 3 (38%) 3 Sub: 1 (13%) 1 Dec: 4 (50%) 4
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 411 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 5%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
80%
of losses by finish
4 of 5 · usually R2
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 1 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Tyson Pedro
Elo 1542 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
6.2
+1.8 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 13 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1500

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Paulo Costa
#5 · Elo 1592
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Modestas Bukauskas on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.