HonestElo
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Modestas Bukauskas

Active #27 light heavyweight · Switch · 191 cm · reach 198 cm
Elo rating
1534 ±32
LCB 1492
Rank
#27
top 57% of division
UFC record
7-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Jan 24, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Jul 15, 2020 — W vs Andreas Michailidis Δ+33Oct 17, 2020 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-29Mar 27, 2021 — L vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ-29Sep 4, 2021 — L vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ-31Feb 11, 2023 — W vs Tyson Pedro Δ+37Jun 17, 2023 — W vs Zac Pauga Δ+17Nov 4, 2023 — L vs Vitor Petrino Δ-15Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Marcin Prachnio Δ+19Feb 22, 2025 — W vs Rafael Cerqueira Δ+17May 10, 2025 — W vs Ion Cutelaba Δ+17Sep 6, 2025 — W vs Paul Craig Δ+18Jan 24, 2026 — L vs Nikita Krylov Δ-18 14041451149815451592 202120222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":90.1,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-07-15","opp":"Andreas Michailidis","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":63.7,"y":123.4,"elo":1504,"date":"2020-10-17","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":131.6,"y":155.9,"elo":1475,"date":"2021-03-27","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":199.5,"y":190.8,"elo":1444,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":421.1,"y":149.4,"elo":1481,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Tyson Pedro","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":474.3,"y":130.6,"elo":1497,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Zac Pauga","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":533.3,"y":147.9,"elo":1482,"date":"2023-11-04","opp":"Vitor Petrino","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":645.6,"y":127,"elo":1500,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Marcin Prachnio","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":734.2,"y":108,"elo":1517,"date":"2025-02-22","opp":"Rafael Cerqueira","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":766.7,"y":89.3,"elo":1534,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Ion Cutelaba","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":816.9,"y":69.2,"elo":1552,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Paul Craig","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":89.2,"elo":1534,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2026 Nikita Krylov L -18
Sep 6, 2025 Paul Craig W +18
May 10, 2025 Ion Cutelaba W +17
Feb 22, 2025 Rafael Cerqueira W +17
Jul 27, 2024 Marcin Prachnio W +19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.88 avg 3.69
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 54%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.61 avg 3.37
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 49%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.23 avg 0.74
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
67% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.12 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
3
43% of wins
SUB
1
14% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 3 (43%) 3 Sub: 1 (14%) 1 Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1514
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.7
actual +1 vs expected