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Kelvin Gastelum

Active #15 middleweight · Southpaw · 175 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1612 ±37
LCB 1564
Rank
#15
top 18% of division
UFC record
14-10-0
KO 3 · Sub 2 · Dec 9
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -8
Last fight
Sep 13, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Apr 13, 2013 — W vs Uriah Hall Δ+36Aug 28, 2013 — W vs Brian Melancon Δ+34Mar 15, 2014 — W vs Rick Story Δ+32Jun 28, 2014 — W vs Nicholas Musoke Δ+26Nov 15, 2014 — W vs Jake Ellenberger Δ+31Jan 31, 2015 — L vs Tyron Woodley Δ-19Jun 13, 2015 — W vs Nate Marquardt Δ+16Nov 21, 2015 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-18Jul 9, 2016 — W vs Johny Hendricks Δ+17Dec 10, 2016 — W vs Tim Kennedy Δ+14Jul 22, 2017 — L vs Chris Weidman Δ-18Nov 25, 2017 — W vs Michael Bisping Δ+20May 12, 2018 — W vs Jacare Souza Δ+16Apr 13, 2019 — L vs Israel Adesanya Δ-21Nov 2, 2019 — L vs Darren Till Δ-19Jul 18, 2020 — L vs Jack Hermansson Δ-21Feb 13, 2021 — W vs Ian Heinisch Δ+13Apr 17, 2021 — L vs Robert Whittaker Δ-13Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Jared Cannonier Δ-18Apr 8, 2023 — W vs Chris Curtis Δ+16Dec 2, 2023 — L vs Sean Brady Δ-17Jun 22, 2024 — W vs Daniel Rodriguez Δ+16Jun 7, 2025 — L vs Joe Pyfer Δ-17Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Dustin Stoltzfus Δ+9 14961554161116691726 201520172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2013-04-13","opp":"Uriah Hall","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":49.7,"y":168.2,"elo":1570,"date":"2013-08-28","opp":"Brian Melancon","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":87.1,"y":138.9,"elo":1601,"date":"2014-03-15","opp":"Rick Story","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":106.8,"y":115.4,"elo":1627,"date":"2014-06-28","opp":"Nicholas Musoke","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":4,"x":133.1,"y":87.1,"elo":1658,"date":"2014-11-15","opp":"Jake Ellenberger","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":147.6,"y":104.9,"elo":1638,"date":"2015-01-31","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":172.6,"y":90.6,"elo":1654,"date":"2015-06-13","opp":"Nate Marquardt","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":202.8,"y":107.1,"elo":1636,"date":"2015-11-21","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":246.2,"y":91.5,"elo":1653,"date":"2016-07-09","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":275.1,"y":78.5,"elo":1667,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Tim Kennedy","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":317.2,"y":94.7,"elo":1649,"date":"2017-07-22","opp":"Chris Weidman","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":11,"x":340.9,"y":76,"elo":1670,"date":"2017-11-25","opp":"Michael Bisping","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":372.4,"y":60.9,"elo":1686,"date":"2018-05-12","opp":"Jacare Souza","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":435.5,"y":80.3,"elo":1665,"date":"2019-04-13","opp":"Israel Adesanya","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":14,"x":473.7,"y":97.6,"elo":1646,"date":"2019-11-02","opp":"Darren Till","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":522.3,"y":117.3,"elo":1625,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Jack Hermansson","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":16,"x":561.8,"y":105.4,"elo":1638,"date":"2021-02-13","opp":"Ian Heinisch","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":17,"x":573.6,"y":117.8,"elo":1624,"date":"2021-04-17","opp":"Robert Whittaker","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":18,"x":597.3,"y":134.8,"elo":1606,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Jared Cannonier","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":19,"x":709,"y":120,"elo":1622,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Chris Curtis","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":20,"x":753.7,"y":136.1,"elo":1604,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Sean Brady","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":21,"x":791.9,"y":121.6,"elo":1620,"date":"2024-06-22","opp":"Daniel Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":22,"x":857.6,"y":137.6,"elo":1603,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Joe Pyfer","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":876,"y":129,"elo":1612,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Dustin Stoltzfus","result":"W","delta":9}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 13, 2025 Dustin Stoltzfus W +9
Jun 7, 2025 Joe Pyfer L -17
Jun 22, 2024 Daniel Rodriguez W +16
Dec 2, 2023 Sean Brady L -17
Apr 8, 2023 Chris Curtis W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.48 avg 3.85
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.38 avg 3.06
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.97 avg 1.43
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
60% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.08 avg 0.49
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
36%
5 / 14
Finish rate
KO
3
21% of wins
SUB
2
14% of wins
DEC
9
64% of wins
KO: 3 (21%) 3 Sub: 2 (14%) 2 Dec: 9 (64%) 9
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
3 60%
R2
1 20%
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1577
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.8
actual +1 vs expected