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Bogdan Guskov "Hitman"

Active #9 light heavyweight · age 33 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1569
Global Elo 1608 ±30
Rank
#9
top 21% of division
UFC record
4-1-1
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
0
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +35
Last fight
Dec 6, 2025
Draw by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
44m
Avg fight time
7:15
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
2.7
Since last fight
7mo

Honest Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Sep 2, 2023 — L vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ-29Feb 10, 2024 — W vs Zac Pauga Δ+32Apr 27, 2024 — W vs Ryan Spann Δ+40Jan 18, 2025 — W vs Billy Elekana Δ+29Jul 26, 2025 — W vs Nikita Krylov Δ+34Dec 6, 2025 — D vs Jan Blachowicz Δ+1 14001450150015501600 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":358.5,"elo":1432,"date":"2023-09-02","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":230.3,"y":306.6,"elo":1465,"date":"2024-02-10","opp":"Zac Pauga","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":2,"x":297.5,"y":242.3,"elo":1505,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Ryan Spann","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":529.3,"y":196.1,"elo":1534,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Billy Elekana","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":694.1,"y":141.2,"elo":1568,"date":"2025-07-26","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":810,"y":139.9,"elo":1569,"date":"2025-12-06","opp":"Jan Blachowicz","result":"D","delta":1}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 6, 2025 Jan Blachowicz D +1
Jul 26, 2025 Nikita Krylov W +34
Jan 18, 2025 Billy Elekana W +29
Apr 27, 2024 Ryan Spann W +40
Feb 10, 2024 Zac Pauga W +32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
—
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
4 / 4
Finish rate
KO
3
75% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 3 (75%) 3 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
2 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 199 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
88% Head
  • Head 88%
  • Body 5%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
59% Distance
  • Distance 59%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 36%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
1 of 1
0 KO/TKO 1 Sub 0 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1550
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Nikita Krylov
Elo 1585 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.9
+1.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 6 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1543
1624

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Paulo Costa
#5 · Elo 1592
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Bogdan Guskov on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.