HonestElo
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Paul Craig

Active Retired · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 193 cm
Retired. Ratings shown are a historical snapshot at the time of the last fight.
Elo rating
1505 ±33
LCB 1462
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-10-1
KO 3 · Sub 6 · Dec 0
Streak
-4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Sep 6, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

20 fights · tap & drag
Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Henrique da Silva Δ+39Mar 4, 2017 — L vs Tyson Pedro Δ-34Jul 16, 2017 — L vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ-36Mar 17, 2018 — W vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ+36Dec 1, 2018 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-34Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Δ+20Jun 29, 2019 — L vs Alonzo Menifield Δ-16Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Vinicius Moreira Δ+16Nov 16, 2019 — D vs Mauricio Rua Δ+5Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov Δ+19Nov 21, 2020 — W vs Mauricio Rua Δ+23Jun 12, 2021 — W vs Jamahal Hill Δ+20Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Nikita Krylov Δ+19Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ-18Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Johnny Walker Δ-19Jul 22, 2023 — W vs Andre Muniz Δ+23Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-13May 4, 2024 — L vs Caio Borralho Δ-14Nov 16, 2024 — L vs Bo Nickal Δ-14Sep 6, 2025 — L vs Modestas Bukauskas Δ-18 14291476152315701617 2018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":111.2,"elo":1539,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Henrique da Silva","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":1,"x":44.6,"y":149.7,"elo":1505,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Tyson Pedro","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":2,"x":80.4,"y":190.8,"elo":1469,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":145.7,"y":150.1,"elo":1505,"date":"2018-03-17","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":215,"y":188,"elo":1471,"date":"2018-12-01","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":5,"x":246.8,"y":165.5,"elo":1491,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Kennedy Nzechukwu","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":271.2,"y":183.8,"elo":1475,"date":"2019-06-29","opp":"Alonzo Menifield","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":293.6,"y":165.3,"elo":1492,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Vinicius Moreira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":308.6,"y":159.9,"elo":1496,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"D","delta":5},{"i":9,"x":376,"y":139,"elo":1515,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Gadzhimurad Antigulov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":407.9,"y":112.8,"elo":1538,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":11,"x":462.2,"y":90.4,"elo":1558,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Jamahal Hill","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":537.1,"y":69.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":570.8,"y":89.2,"elo":1559,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":619.5,"y":110.3,"elo":1540,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Johnny Walker","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":668.1,"y":84,"elo":1563,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Andre Muniz","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":16,"x":700,"y":98.6,"elo":1551,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":17,"x":744.9,"y":114.3,"elo":1537,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Caio Borralho","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":18,"x":797.4,"y":129.9,"elo":1523,"date":"2024-11-16","opp":"Bo Nickal","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":19,"x":876,"y":150.1,"elo":1505,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Modestas Bukauskas","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 6, 2025 Modestas Bukauskas L -18
Nov 16, 2024 Bo Nickal L -14
May 4, 2024 Caio Borralho L -14
Nov 18, 2023 Brendan Allen L -13
Jul 22, 2023 Andre Muniz W +23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.13 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.64 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
43% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.26 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
20% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
38% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.18 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
9 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
6
67% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 6 (67%) 6 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
4 44%
R2
3 33%
R3
2 22%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1612
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
9.1
actual 0 vs expected