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Paul Craig "Bearjew"

Active Retired · age 38 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
Retired. Ratings shown are a historical snapshot at the time of the last fight.
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO or submission
  • 44% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1462
Global Elo 1505 ±33
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-10-1
KO 3 · Sub 6 · Dec 0
Streak
-4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -18
Last fight
Sep 6, 2025
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 43m
Avg fight time
8:10
Bonuses
11
Fights per year
2.3
Since last fight
10mo

Honest Elo history

20 fights · tap & drag
Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Henrique da Silva Δ+39Mar 4, 2017 — L vs Tyson Pedro Δ-34Jul 16, 2017 — L vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ-36Mar 17, 2018 — W vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ+36Dec 1, 2018 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-34Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Δ+20Jun 29, 2019 — L vs Alonzo Menifield Δ-16Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Vinicius Moreira Δ+16Nov 16, 2019 — D vs Mauricio Rua Δ+5Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov Δ+19Nov 21, 2020 — W vs Mauricio Rua Δ+23Jun 12, 2021 — W vs Jamahal Hill Δ+20Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Nikita Krylov Δ+19Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ-18Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Johnny Walker Δ-19Jul 22, 2023 — W vs Andre Muniz Δ+23Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-13May 4, 2024 — L vs Caio Borralho Δ-14Nov 16, 2024 — L vs Bo Nickal Δ-14Sep 6, 2025 — L vs Modestas Bukauskas Δ-18 14001425145014751500152515501575 2018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":234.1,"elo":1496,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Henrique da Silva","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":1,"x":107.4,"y":296.3,"elo":1462,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Tyson Pedro","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":2,"x":137.7,"y":362.8,"elo":1426,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":192.9,"y":297,"elo":1462,"date":"2018-03-17","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":251.4,"y":358.3,"elo":1428,"date":"2018-12-01","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":5,"x":278.3,"y":321.9,"elo":1448,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Kennedy Nzechukwu","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":298.9,"y":351.5,"elo":1432,"date":"2019-06-29","opp":"Alonzo Menifield","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":317.9,"y":321.5,"elo":1448,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Vinicius Moreira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":330.5,"y":312.9,"elo":1453,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"D","delta":5},{"i":9,"x":387.5,"y":279.1,"elo":1472,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Gadzhimurad Antigulov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":414.4,"y":236.7,"elo":1495,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Mauricio Rua","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":11,"x":460.3,"y":200.4,"elo":1515,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Jamahal Hill","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":523.6,"y":166.1,"elo":1533,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Nikita Krylov","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":552.1,"y":198.4,"elo":1516,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":593.2,"y":232.8,"elo":1497,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Johnny Walker","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":634.4,"y":190,"elo":1520,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Andre Muniz","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":16,"x":661.3,"y":213.8,"elo":1507,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":17,"x":699.2,"y":239,"elo":1493,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Caio Borralho","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":18,"x":743.5,"y":264.3,"elo":1480,"date":"2024-11-16","opp":"Bo Nickal","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":19,"x":810,"y":297,"elo":1462,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Modestas Bukauskas","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 6, 2025 Modestas Bukauskas L -18
Nov 16, 2024 Bo Nickal L -14
May 4, 2024 Caio Borralho L -14
Nov 18, 2023 Brendan Allen L -13
Jul 22, 2023 Andre Muniz W +23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
9 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
6
67% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 6 (67%) 6 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
4 44%
R2
3 33%
R3
2 22%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 404 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 20%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
80%
of losses by finish
8 of 10 · usually R1
6 KO/TKO 2 Sub 2 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1612
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Andre Muniz
Elo 1636 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
9.1
−0.1 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 20 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1566
1534
Notable wins
Andre Muniz 1636 Mauricio Rua 1607

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1654
Azamat Murzakanov
#3 · Elo 1611
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1604
Paulo Costa
#5 · Elo 1592
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Paul Craig on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.