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Myktybek Orolbai

Active #23 welterweight · age 28 · Orthodox · 5'10" 178 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1578
Global Elo 1622 ±34
Rank
#23
top 30% of division
UFC record
5-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +79
Last fight
Mar 14, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 2m
Avg fight time
10:16
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
2.6
Ground control
33m
Since last fight
3mo

Honest Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Nov 18, 2023 — W vs Uros Medic Δ+40May 4, 2024 — W vs Elves Brener Δ+33Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Mateusz Rebecki Δ-30Jun 21, 2025 — W vs Tofiq Musayev Δ+29Nov 22, 2025 — W vs Jack Hermansson Δ+35Mar 14, 2026 — W vs Chris Curtis Δ+15 147515001525155015751600 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":356,"elo":1496,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Uros Medic","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":1,"x":232.8,"y":271.2,"elo":1529,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Elves Brener","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":381.6,"y":347.8,"elo":1499,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Mateusz Rebecki","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":583.9,"y":273.3,"elo":1528,"date":"2025-06-21","opp":"Tofiq Musayev","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":714.8,"y":184.5,"elo":1563,"date":"2025-11-22","opp":"Jack Hermansson","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":810,"y":145.8,"elo":1578,"date":"2026-03-14","opp":"Chris Curtis","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 14, 2026 Chris Curtis W +15
Nov 22, 2025 Jack Hermansson W +35
Jun 21, 2025 Tofiq Musayev W +29
Oct 26, 2024 Mateusz Rebecki L -30
May 4, 2024 Elves Brener W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
3 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
2
40% of wins
DEC
2
40% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 2 (40%) 2 Dec: 2 (40%) 2
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 171 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 30%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
Never been finished
All 1 loss went to the scorecards

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1565
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Elves Brener
Elo 1592 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.9
+2.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 6 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1570
1586

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Myktybek Orolbai on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.