HonestElo
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BJ Penn

Inactive · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1535 ±20
LCB 1509
Rank
—
—
UFC record
12-13-2
KO 6 · Sub 4 · Dec 1
Streak
-7
Δ90d +2 · Δ1y +2
Last fight
May 11, 2019
L by Decision

Elo history

27 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2001 — W vs Joey Gilbert Δ+33Jun 29, 2001 — W vs Din Thomas Δ+30Nov 2, 2001 — W vs Caol Uno Δ+28Jan 11, 2002 — L vs Jens Pulver Δ-32May 10, 2002 — W vs Paul Creighton Δ+28Sep 27, 2002 — W vs Matt Serra Δ+14Feb 28, 2003 — D vs Caol Uno Δ-3Jan 31, 2004 — W vs Matt Hughes Δ+27Mar 4, 2006 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-17Sep 23, 2006 — L vs Matt Hughes Δ-17Jun 23, 2007 — W vs Jens Pulver Δ+20Jan 19, 2008 — W vs Joe Stevenson Δ+23May 24, 2008 — W vs Sean Sherk Δ+20Jan 31, 2009 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-20Aug 8, 2009 — W vs Kenny Florian Δ+23Dec 12, 2009 — W vs Diego Sanchez Δ+21Apr 10, 2010 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-23Aug 28, 2010 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-21Nov 20, 2010 — W vs Matt Hughes Δ+21Feb 26, 2011 — D vs Jon Fitch Δ+3Oct 29, 2011 — L vs Nick Diaz Δ-20Dec 8, 2012 — L vs Rory MacDonald Δ-18Jul 6, 2014 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-18Jan 15, 2017 — L vs Yair Rodriguez Δ-16Jun 25, 2017 — L vs Dennis Siver Δ-18Dec 29, 2018 — L vs Ryan Hall Δ-18May 11, 2019 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-16 14931549160516611717 200420072010201320162019 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2001-05-04","opp":"Joey Gilbert","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":31.2,"y":169.8,"elo":1563,"date":"2001-06-29","opp":"Din Thomas","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":47.6,"y":143,"elo":1592,"date":"2001-11-02","opp":"Caol Uno","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":56.6,"y":173,"elo":1560,"date":"2002-01-11","opp":"Jens Pulver","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":72,"y":147,"elo":1587,"date":"2002-05-10","opp":"Paul Creighton","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":90.2,"y":134.1,"elo":1601,"date":"2002-09-27","opp":"Matt Serra","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":110.1,"y":137.4,"elo":1597,"date":"2003-02-28","opp":"Caol Uno","result":"D","delta":-3},{"i":7,"x":153.7,"y":111.8,"elo":1624,"date":"2004-01-31","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":8,"x":252.5,"y":127.9,"elo":1607,"date":"2006-03-04","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":278.8,"y":143.7,"elo":1591,"date":"2006-09-23","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":314.1,"y":124.7,"elo":1611,"date":"2007-06-23","opp":"Jens Pulver","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":341.3,"y":102.8,"elo":1634,"date":"2008-01-19","opp":"Joe Stevenson","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":12,"x":357.6,"y":84.2,"elo":1654,"date":"2008-05-24","opp":"Sean Sherk","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":13,"x":390.3,"y":103.2,"elo":1634,"date":"2009-01-31","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":14,"x":414.7,"y":81.8,"elo":1656,"date":"2009-08-08","opp":"Kenny Florian","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":15,"x":431,"y":61.8,"elo":1677,"date":"2009-12-12","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":16,"x":446.4,"y":84,"elo":1654,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":17,"x":464.6,"y":103.5,"elo":1633,"date":"2010-08-28","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":18,"x":475.4,"y":83.6,"elo":1654,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":19,"x":488.1,"y":81,"elo":1657,"date":"2011-02-26","opp":"Jon Fitch","result":"D","delta":3},{"i":20,"x":519.8,"y":99.9,"elo":1637,"date":"2011-10-29","opp":"Nick Diaz","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":21,"x":572.4,"y":116.7,"elo":1619,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"Rory MacDonald","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":22,"x":646.8,"y":133.3,"elo":1602,"date":"2014-07-06","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":23,"x":766.5,"y":148.9,"elo":1585,"date":"2017-01-15","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":24,"x":787.3,"y":165.6,"elo":1568,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Dennis Siver","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":25,"x":858.8,"y":182.9,"elo":1549,"date":"2018-12-29","opp":"Ryan Hall","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":26,"x":876,"y":197.9,"elo":1533,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 11, 2019 Clay Guida L -16
Dec 29, 2018 Ryan Hall L -18
Jun 25, 2017 Dennis Siver L -18
Jan 15, 2017 Yair Rodriguez L -16
Jul 6, 2014 Frankie Edgar L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.59 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.22 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.01 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
58% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
76% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.47 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
83%
10 / 12
Finish rate
KO
6
50% of wins
SUB
4
33% of wins
DEC
1
8% of wins
KO: 6 (55%) 6 Sub: 4 (36%) 4 Dec: 1 (9%) 1
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
5 45%
R2
3 27%
R3
1 9%
R4
1 9%
R5
1 9%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1588
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
13.7
actual -2 vs expected