HonestElo
← lightweight

BJ Penn "The Prodigy"

Inactive · age 47 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • 4 successful title defenses
  • 7-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 92% of wins by KO or submission
Elo rating
1509
Global Elo 1535 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
12-13-2
KO 6 · Sub 4 · Dec 1
Streak
-7
Δ90d +2 · Δ1y +2
Last fight
May 11, 2019
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
5h 56m
Avg fight time
13:12
Title fights
5-5
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
1.5
Since last fight
7y 1mo

Honest Elo history

27 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2001 — W vs Joey Gilbert Δ+33Jun 29, 2001 — W vs Din Thomas Δ+30Nov 2, 2001 — W vs Caol Uno Δ+28Jan 11, 2002 — L vs Jens Pulver Δ-32May 10, 2002 — W vs Paul Creighton Δ+28Sep 27, 2002 — W vs Matt Serra Δ+14Feb 28, 2003 — D vs Caol Uno Δ-3Jan 31, 2004 — W vs Matt Hughes Δ+27Mar 4, 2006 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-17Sep 23, 2006 — L vs Matt Hughes Δ-17Jun 23, 2007 — W vs Jens Pulver Δ+20Jan 19, 2008 — W vs Joe Stevenson Δ+23May 24, 2008 — W vs Sean Sherk Δ+20Jan 31, 2009 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-20Aug 8, 2009 — W vs Kenny Florian Δ+23Dec 12, 2009 — W vs Diego Sanchez Δ+21Apr 10, 2010 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-23Aug 28, 2010 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-21Nov 20, 2010 — W vs Matt Hughes Δ+21Feb 26, 2011 — D vs Jon Fitch Δ+3Oct 29, 2011 — L vs Nick Diaz Δ-20Dec 8, 2012 — L vs Rory MacDonald Δ-18Jul 6, 2014 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-18Jan 15, 2017 — L vs Yair Rodriguez Δ-17Jun 25, 2017 — L vs Dennis Siver Δ-18Dec 29, 2018 — L vs Ryan Hall Δ-18May 11, 2019 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-16 145015001550160016501700 200420072010201320162019 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":335.1,"elo":1509,"date":"2001-05-04","opp":"Joey Gilbert","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":96.1,"y":296.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2001-06-29","opp":"Din Thomas","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":109.9,"y":260.4,"elo":1567,"date":"2001-11-02","opp":"Caol Uno","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":117.6,"y":301.1,"elo":1535,"date":"2002-01-11","opp":"Jens Pulver","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":130.6,"y":265.9,"elo":1563,"date":"2002-05-10","opp":"Paul Creighton","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":145.9,"y":248.3,"elo":1576,"date":"2002-09-27","opp":"Matt Serra","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":162.8,"y":252.8,"elo":1573,"date":"2003-02-28","opp":"Caol Uno","result":"D","delta":-3},{"i":7,"x":199.6,"y":218.1,"elo":1600,"date":"2004-01-31","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":8,"x":283.1,"y":240,"elo":1583,"date":"2006-03-04","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":305.3,"y":261.3,"elo":1566,"date":"2006-09-23","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":335.2,"y":235.4,"elo":1586,"date":"2007-06-23","opp":"Jens Pulver","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":358.2,"y":205.8,"elo":1610,"date":"2008-01-19","opp":"Joe Stevenson","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":12,"x":371.9,"y":180.8,"elo":1629,"date":"2008-05-24","opp":"Sean Sherk","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":13,"x":399.5,"y":206.5,"elo":1609,"date":"2009-01-31","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":14,"x":420.2,"y":177.3,"elo":1632,"date":"2009-08-08","opp":"Kenny Florian","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":15,"x":434,"y":150.4,"elo":1653,"date":"2009-12-12","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":16,"x":447,"y":180.4,"elo":1629,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":17,"x":462.3,"y":206.9,"elo":1609,"date":"2010-08-28","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":18,"x":471.5,"y":179.9,"elo":1630,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":19,"x":482.2,"y":176.4,"elo":1633,"date":"2011-02-26","opp":"Jon Fitch","result":"D","delta":3},{"i":20,"x":509,"y":202,"elo":1613,"date":"2011-10-29","opp":"Nick Diaz","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":21,"x":553.4,"y":224.5,"elo":1595,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"Rory MacDonald","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":22,"x":616.4,"y":247.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2014-07-06","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":23,"x":717.4,"y":268.3,"elo":1561,"date":"2017-01-15","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":24,"x":735.1,"y":290.8,"elo":1543,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Dennis Siver","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":25,"x":795.4,"y":314.3,"elo":1525,"date":"2018-12-29","opp":"Ryan Hall","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":26,"x":810,"y":334.6,"elo":1509,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 11, 2019 Clay Guida L -16
Dec 29, 2018 Ryan Hall L -18
Jun 25, 2017 Dennis Siver L -18
Jan 15, 2017 Yair Rodriguez L -17
Jul 6, 2014 Frankie Edgar L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
83%
10 / 12
Finish rate
KO
6
50% of wins
SUB
4
33% of wins
DEC
1
8% of wins
KO: 6 (55%) 6 Sub: 4 (36%) 4 Dec: 1 (9%) 1
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
5 45%
R2
3 27%
R3
1 9%
R4
1 9%
R5
1 9%

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 999 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
78% Head
  • Head 78%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 5%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Distance
  • Distance 63%
  • Clinch 21%
  • Ground 16%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
38%
of losses by finish
5 of 13 · usually R3
4 KO/TKO 1 Sub 8 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1588
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
6
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Matt Hughes
Elo 1684 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
13.6
−1.6 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 27 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1550
Notable wins
Matt Hughes ×2 1684 Diego Sanchez 1674 Kenny Florian 1630 Jens Pulver 1624 Joe Stevenson 1613

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from BJ Penn on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.